The escalating trade rhetoric between the U.S. and China should make all companies “realize (if you have not already) that this is not a temporary dispute and is not likely to be resolved anytime soon,” customs lawyer Ted Murphy with Baker & McKenzie blogged on Aug. 9. “The two sides are doubling down and digging in.” With 2020 elections “inching closer” and China’s 70th birthday of the People's Republic festivities set for October, “the political considerations associated with these events make it less likely that a deal will be reached,” he said. “As a result, companies should be re-examining/re-adjusting their supply chains and pursuing additional Section 301 mitigation strategies,” while taking “a view to the medium/long term,” Murphy said.

The final list of goods subject to the latest round of Section 301 tariffs will likely be out in days, and duties will probably remain in place for the foreseeable future, given the current state of U.S.-China trade negotiations, trade consultant David Trumbull of Agathon Associates said in an Aug. 8 post on his blog Textiles and Trade. “In view of short time before the tariffs are anticipated and the fact that [the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative] has already gathered public comments and testimony and started analysis, that USTR will likely issue the final list 4 within a few days,” he said. “Based on our observations from lists 1 through 3, we believe it unlikely that USTR will remove much from list 4. We also believe that, given the current state of U.S.-China trade talks, which are at the coldest ever, there is little likelihood of averting tariffs, meaning the September 1, 2019, [start] will likely stick. Finally, in view of the way List 3 went from 10% to 25%, we believe that if this trade dispute continues into 2020, there is substantial risk of 25% tariff of list 4,” Trumbull said.

In a review of how the domestic industry has or has not been given breathing room to adjust to imports, the International Trade Commission says there has been some improvement in the financial performance of domestic washing machine producers, increased production and employment, and progress in implementing adjustment plans. Imports have declined, and Samsung and LG started production of washers in South Carolina and Tennessee, respectively, though they are having difficulties ramping up.

Businesses would get a reason for their exclusion denials if a bill introduced by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., earlier this month becomes law. S. 2362, which has no co-sponsors, would require that an exclusion process be opened before any Section 232 or Section 301 duties went into effect. The Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative would be required to make determinations within 30 days on each request. In a press release announcing the bill, Whitehouse said: “President Trump’s tariffs are causing enormous uncertainty for Rhode Island companies as they make decisions about adding jobs and investing in research and development. It is the least we can do to put in place a fair, orderly process to determine whether a business qualifies for a tariff waiver.”

Strong first-half results and “momentum” to begin the second half persuaded Roku to upgrade its full-year outlook, said Chief Financial Officer Steve Louden on a Q2 earnings call Wednesday. Roku now expects 2019 revenue to reach $1.09 billion, which would be up 46 percent from 2018, compared with 40 percent year-over-year growth predicted in its May forecast, he said.

Tariffs Hurt the Heartland says importers paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, up $2.5 billion, or 74 percent, from the same month in 2018. The report, based on Census data, covers the first month when Section 301 tariffs on $200 billion in imports from China were at 25 percent rather than 10 percent. The advocacy group also noted that June was the 11th month in a row that American exports targeted for retaliation declined by more than 15 percent.

Tariffs on consumer tech products will increase by $1 billion or more per month if the 10 percent List 4 Section 301 duties on Chinese imports take effect Sept. 1 on all goods exposed (see 1908010059), said CTA Wednesday. The industry paid $1.7 billion in tariffs in June, more than eight times higher than in June 2018, despite a 39 percent decrease in imports year over year, it said. The List 4 tariffs “would nearly double that total in September” if the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative maintains duties on all products proposed in May (see 1905140025), said CTA. The U.S. in June imported more than $13 billion in consumer tech products from China that would face new 10 percent tariffs on Sept. 1, it said. “Tariffs are taxes -- and increasing costs on companies puts consumers in the middle of President [Donald] Trump’s trade war,” said CTA President Gary Shapiro. “The president does not have unilateral authority on trade.” He urged passage of House and Senate legislation (see 1906260019) that would “reassert Congress’ role in trade policy and protect Americans from being crushed by unending trade wars and retaliatory tariffs.” Nearly every application for displays faces List 4 tariff exposure, blogged Display Supply Chain Consultants President Bob O’Brien Tuesday. If the higher tariff costs are passed along to consumers, the reduced demand will mean a “net loss” for the global display industry because the U.S. provides about 25 percent of worldwide demand, he said: “An industry already suffering from overcapacity will get worse.”

Tariffs on consumer tech products will increase by $1 billion or more per month if the 10 percent List 4 Section 301 duties on Chinese imports take effect Sept. 1 on all goods exposed (see 1908010059), said CTA Wednesday. The industry paid $1.7 billion in tariffs in June, more than eight times higher than in June 2018, despite a 39 percent decrease in imports year over year, it said. The List 4 tariffs “would nearly double that total in September” if the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative maintains duties on all products proposed in May (see 1905140025), said CTA. The U.S. in June imported more than $13 billion in consumer tech products from China that would face new 10 percent tariffs on Sept. 1, it said. “Tariffs are taxes -- and increasing costs on companies puts consumers in the middle of President [Donald] Trump’s trade war,” said CTA President Gary Shapiro. “The president does not have unilateral authority on trade.” He urged passage of House and Senate legislation (see 1906260019) that would “reassert Congress’ role in trade policy and protect Americans from being crushed by unending trade wars and retaliatory tariffs.” Nearly every application for displays faces List 4 tariff exposure, blogged Display Supply Chain Consultants President Bob O’Brien Tuesday. If the higher tariff costs are passed along to consumers, the reduced demand will mean a “net loss” for the global display industry because the U.S. provides about 25 percent of worldwide demand, he said: “An industry already suffering from overcapacity will get worse.”

CBP has assessed about $33.4 billion in duties under the major trade remedies started during the Trump administration as of Aug. 7, according to CBP's trade statistics page. That is about an 8 percent increase from the previous update on July 24 (see 1907250020). That includes $24.4 billion in duties from the Section 301 tariffs on goods from China. CBP also has assessed about $6 billion under the Section 232 tariffs on steel and $1.9 billion under tariffs on aluminum. The Section 201 trade remedies on washing machines, washing machine parts and solar cells (see 1801230052), imposed Jan. 23, 2018, account for $962.4 million in assessed tariffs.

The International Trade Commission in recent days posted Revision 11 to the 2019 Harmonized Tariff Schedule. All changes relate to implementation of the first group of exclusions from tranche three of Section 301 tariffs on products from China (see 1908050010). That includes the creation of new tariff subheading 9903.88.13 for products filed under the new exclusions.