Anticipation of promotional discounting is the top reason back-to-school shoppers are waiting to get started, reported NPD Monday. Rising prices and consumers shopping for more immediate needs “disrupted early back-to-school shopping season performance,” said NPD. In the first seven weeks of the back-to-school shopping season, U.S. non-school-related general merchandise sales revenue grew 4%, while school spending fell short of last year’s results, it said. “Consumers are balancing their return to school, work, and social activities, while retaining some pandemic-related behaviors, and prioritizing their purchases accordingly,” said Marshal Cohen, NPD chief retail industry adviser. “Consumers have been more focused on travel and social activities this summer, pushing the 2022 back-to-school shopping peak later.”

Nearly six in 10 chief information officers globally would replace half or more of their companies’ current information technology if “given the chance to reboot from scratch,” a Lenovo-commissioned survey found. Zeno Group canvassed 525 CIOs in Brazil, China, Japan, Singapore, the U.K. and the U.S. in December, finding the urge to upgrade their “tech stack” is higher in the U.K., where 71% of CIOs would replace half or more of their company’s current IT products. Lenovo is optimistic on the long-term health of the PC industry, said top executives on a fiscal Q1 earnings call this month, noting there’s a “huge” opportunity in the 400 million-plus installed base of PCs that will need to be “replaced and refreshed” (see 2208100020).

Consumer intentions on buying new TV sets increased in August from July, according to preliminary Conference Board data released Tuesday. Analytics company Toluna canvassed 5,000 U.S. homes online through Aug. 23, finding 11.2% plan to buy a new TV set in the next six months, said the board. That was up from 10.9% in July, 10.4% in June and 10.4% in August 2021, it said. Consumer confidence increased in August after three straight monthly declines, said the board. “Concerns about inflation continued their retreat but remained elevated” in August, it said. The improvement in confidence “may help support spending,” but inflation and additional Federal Reserve rate hikes “still pose risks to economic growth in the short term,” it said.

Revenue from U.S. consumer tech sales is expected to decline 6% this year and another 3% in 2023 but remain above 2019 industry sales due to higher average selling prices, reported NPD Monday. It forecast holiday selling season consumer tech revenue this year will be down from 2021, but 11% higher than in 2019. “For the last two years consumers have relied on technology products to make their lives more comfortable and convenient while many worked, learned, and entertained mostly from home,” said Paul Gagnon, NPD vice president-industry adviser. “Rather than waiting for promotions, or in some cases specific products, they bought what was available when they needed it. But as consumers return to more ‘normal’ behaviors and schedules we are seeing a shift back to pre-pandemic purchase patterns and believe consumers will once again be seeking out holiday deals this Q4.” Though “tremendous” consumer tech sales in 2020 and 2021 “pulled demand forward in a number of categories” and will contribute to near-term declines for PC sales, industry “bright spots” for holiday 2022 will include TVs, tablets, true wireless headphones and home automation products, said NPD. TV unit sales are expected to return to growth in Q4, with year-over-year unit sales up 9%, “as prices fall and deeper promotions are expected,” it said.

Twenty-six percent of U.S households downgraded or axed a subscription VOD or pay-TV service in the past six months due to inflation, Aluma Insights said Thursday. It said 59% of households cut back on dining out during the same span, and a third reduced going to movies and live events such as concerts and sports. Aluma said the data comes from a July survey of 1,970 U.S. heads of households. More than a third (36%) of those canvassed said they cut back on paying for movies, concerts or live sports, and 18% said they delayed buying a new TV set or other consumer electronics, said Aluma. Only 7% said they reduced their mobile phone spending, validation that even in the “toughest of times, mobile phone service would be the last expense to go, it said.

The National Kitchen & Bath Association reported softening demand for remodeling projects in Q2 and the second consecutive quarter of easing capacity restraints. Some 36% of manufacturers reported higher inventories, the group emailed Thursday. Kitchen and bath sales grew 6.9% from Q2 2021 when sales were 14.2% higher than the 2020 quarter; it was the second consecutive quarterly deceleration in year-over-year sales growth, NKBA said. Some 59% of design firms and 82% of building and construction firms reported either cancellations or postponements of projects. Manufacturers said they're receiving inventory and products faster than in previous years, and they're “value engineering projects for customers, choosing what is available now at affordable margins and price points.” They're also reporting smaller backlogs in Q2 vs Q1. Industry guidance suggests flat or declining revenue growth in 2023, particularly in retail sales, NKBA said.

Zoom is "not immune" to the “global downturn,” but the situation is “more complex than meets the eye,” said Chief Financial Officer Kelly Steckelberg on an earnings call Monday for fiscal Q2 ended July 31. Total revenue for the quarter was just under $1.1 billion, up 8% year over year, she said. “The headwinds we saw mainly relate to the strengthening dollar, new online subscriptions and, to a lesser extent, bookings linearity,” said Steckelberg. “We have implemented initiatives focused on driving new online subscriptions, which have shown early promise, but were not enough to overcome the macro dynamics in the quarter.” Senior Zoom management recognizes that the revenue results “are disappointing and below our expectations as we navigate the current environment,” said the CFO. Zoom now expects to exit fiscal 2023 on Jan. 31 with full-year revenue of $4.39 billion to $4.4 billion, which would be about 7% year-over-year growth, said Steckelberg. At the midpoint of the guidance, that would be a decrease of about $150 million compared with Zoom’s previous full-year guidance, she said. About $35 million of that decrease will be due to the stronger dollar, the rest to the “broader macroeconomic environment,” she said. The stock plunged 16.5% Tuesday, closing at $81.32.

The holiday shopping season has crept sooner into Q4 in recent years, spurred by a COVID-19 pandemic-delayed mid-October Amazon Prime Day in October 2020. In 2022, the holiday season “is already here,” emailed eMarketer Monday. In a year with steep inflation, consumers are balancing a desire for return to “normal” holidays with the need to trim spending, it said. Many shoppers plan to cut back, switch to value brands and shop earlier to avoid price hikes, the research firm said. Some 43% of U.S. consumers are looking for sales and promotions to be able to buy their favorite brands, eMarketer said, citing NCSolutions data. “Discounting may not help the bottom line, but it may keep inflation-weary shoppers from abandoning brands altogether,” eMarketer said. Citing a Salesforce report, it said 51% of consumers plan to buy fewer holiday gifts, 28% plan to spend less this holiday season and 67% said they have reduced spending on nonessential items. Some holiday shopping even began in July with Prime Day, and numerous reports say Amazon is planning another sales event in October. “With another potential Prime Day in October, non-Amazon retailers need to attract customers jumping the gun to avoid price hikes,” eMarketer said. Amazon didn’t comment.

Home sales fell 19.3% year on year in July to their lowest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic “when the housing market was at a near standstill,” Redfin reported Monday. Home sales were down 4.1% from June, a sixth consecutive monthly decline, Redfin said. Some prospective homebuyers were sidelined by being priced out of the market, and others were wary of future home value decline, it said. Many sellers who did list their homes had to settle for less. Some 21% of sellers dropped their asking price in July, the highest share since at least 2012, Redfin said.

Bill.com estimates 400,000 businesses, many of them single-proprietor enterprises, used its electronic payment services in fiscal 2022 ended June 30, a threefold increase year over year, said CEO Rene Lacerte on a fiscal Q4 earnings call Thursday. But toward the end of the fourth quarter, “we started to see signals of the macro environment impacting spend patterns, especially in discretionary categories like advertising,” he said. Bill.com began in June to see its total payment volume growth rates “moderate,” said Chief Financial Officer John Rettig. “This trend continued into July and early August,” he said. “While it appears that the macro environment is influencing business spend, we continue to see very strong customer acquisition, engagement and retention.” The current macro environment “presents numerous near-term uncertainties,” said Rettig. “Our fiscal 2023 outlook anticipates customers will continue to react to the external factors and temper spend throughout the year, similar to the trends we saw emerging in late Q4 and early this quarter.” Bill.com believes “there is a significant greenfield opportunity ahead of us to help millions of businesses manage their cash flows, and transform their financial operations,” said Rettig. Its total addressable market (TAM) includes more than 30 million small businesses in the U.S. and 70 million globally, the majority of which “still use manual paper-based processes,” said CEO Lacerte. “Our TAM is significant.”