Three trade experts discussing the role of technology in the U.S.-China trade war were split over how and when the two nations will reach a trade deal, with two saying they expect a deal soon and one saying China is willing to wait until a potentially new administration in 2020. But the experts, speaking July 18 during a panel at the Brookings Institution, agreed on one point: If there is a deal, the ban on Huawei Technologies will be lifted.
Exports to China
The delay in passing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is closing other foreign markets for U.S. exporters as trading partners grow more uncertain about the U.S.’s trade negotiations, representatives from U.S. livestock industries said July 16.
China believes that trade “frictions” with the U.S. “should be resolved through dialogue and consultation,” a Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson said on July 17. He was asked about President Donald Trump’s July 16 Cabinet meeting remarks that the U.S. has a “long way to go” before reaching a trade deal with China and can still impose the threatened List 4 Section 301 tariffs on $325 billion worth of Chinese goods “if we want.” If the U.S. “thinks there is still a long way to go before a deal is concluded, well, as the Chinese saying goes, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step,” the spokesperson said. “No matter how long the way is, as long as you step forward, you will eventually reach the destination.” In the face of the U.S. threat to impose the List 4 duties, “China will firmly defend its own interests,” the spokesperson said. “If the U.S. does impose new tariffs, that will indeed set new obstacles for the trade talks. There will be an even longer way to go before reaching a deal.”
Rep. Ron Kind, a pro-trade Democrat from a rural district in Wisconsin, is questioning the Trump administration's claims that large-scale purchases of commodities would follow the meeting of the Chinese and U.S. presidents at the G-20 Summit in Japan. He sent a letter to Larry Kudlow, the president's chief economic adviser, and to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on July 17 making this point. "On July 15, Mr. Kudlow stated that the Administration expects that China will soon be announcing 'some large scale purchases' but offered no further details. Farmers in Wisconsin and around the country are under intense pressure to stay above water, and any notifications of additional agricultural purchases should be clearly communicated to the Congress and the public."
The government of Canada issued the following trade-related notices as of July 17 (note that some may also be given separate headlines):
Vietnam's General Department of Customs announced several investigations into origin fraud after it discovered foreign companies “taking advantage of Vietnam origin to export to third countries to enjoy preferential treatment,” according to a July 17 report from Customs News, the customs agency’s mouthpiece. The country’s customs is investigating “six large enterprises operating in import and export of wood” products related to China, the report said. Authorities have found several customs violations relating to rules of origin, including companies using a “certificate of fake land use in the document to prove materials are produced in Vietnam.” In one case, Vietnam discovered a company “imported thousands of products from China” but recorded the production in Vietnam, the report said.
The U.S. lost its appeal of a 2018 World Trade Organization decision that it had not properly calculated countervailing duties for Chinese pipes, tubular goods, solar panels, aluminum extrusions and other items. China had originally challenged the cases in 2016 -- the cases were brought between 2007 and 2012 (see 1805010071). The earlier ruling held that the U.S. was right to say that Chinese state-owned enterprises count as "public bodies" and therefore their actions can be market distorting. The appeal upheld that element of the case, but also upheld the victories for China. The WTO said that Commerce did not prove specificity in the subsidies for the products, and it also could not show how the SOE inputs distorted market prices. It was not allowed to use other countries' prices as reference points to prove market distortions, the WTO said, unless it had specific evidence that government interference in the market warranted that. The appeal said that countries' ability to use other countries' prices in CVD cases is "very limited."
Global export controls and international sanctions are not stopping luxury goods from entering North Korea, which is employing a significantly larger smuggling scheme than previously known, according to a July 16 report from the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (CADS), a nonprofit research organization in Washington. The 56-page report details how North Korea works with intermediaries, freight forwarders, private financiers and others to smuggle luxury goods into the country. The report also places North Korea’s smuggling system into context: Between 2015 and 2017, at least 90 countries “served as luxury goods procurement sources” for North Korea, the report said.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, told reporters July 16 that he's no longer making predictions about how or when the China-U.S. trade conflict might get resolved. In April, before the breakdown in talks, Grassley was cheering the progress the administration was making (see 1904100052). He said he had been expecting something to be signed in late May, and when the talks fell apart, "I thought we were at the 10-yard line getting an agreement." So now, he said, "I'm going to be very careful" about reacting to news about how things are going between negotiators. He said he heard the rumors that hawks in China are ascendant, and that an addition to the Chinese negotiating team bodes ill for an agreement, but then also saw commentators saying such pessimism is overblown. "I’m just going to take it a day at a time," he said.
China is adding more cities to the 35 already participating in its cross-border e-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone Program, according to a July 16 report from the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. The China State Council announced the upcoming additions after its July 3 meeting. While the additional cities have not yet been named, they are expected to benefit from the same advantages offered to other cities in the program, including no value-added taxes on exports, the report said. The zones will also be given “support” for “the establishment of a greater number of overseas warehouses and “e-commerce platforms are to be assisted in the implementation of the appropriate intellectual property safeguards,” the report said.