Many things about the U.S.-China trade war have not turned out as experts expected, panelists said at the Washington International Trade Association Oct. 2. Chad Bown, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former White House economist, said that 18 months ago, people would have not expected there to be 15 percent to 30 percent tariffs on more than half of Chinese imports, with nearly all the rest slated for tariffs by December, and yet, the economy is doing OK. "Markets haven't panicked," he said. But Bown said he's not that surprised that the country hasn't seen a massive effect from the trade war, since the tariffs in place the longest were on inputs, and because, compared to the size of the entire economy, "we don't actually trade all that much."
India updated goods and services tax rates on a range of items and introduced policies to promote exports, according to a notice from India’s Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs.
House Democrats and the Trump administration are “on a path to yes” to a bill for ratifying the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters Oct. 2. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., leads a USMCA working group that recently sent the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative a “counteroffer to what the administration has proposed,” Pelosi said. “When we can arrive at a place where not only do we have our issues addressed, but that we have enforceability that will make it real for America’s families and farmers, then we can go down that path.” President Donald Trump says he wants USMCA “to go forward, and we are awaiting the language on enforceability” from USTR, Pelosi said. She’s “hopeful” that House Democrats and USTR will reach agreement on USMCA enforceability, “and I’m hopeful that it will be soon,” she said. “We have a good working relationship” with USTR, she said. “Believe me, the quiet you hear is progress.”
Although the U.S. is authorized to levy "prohibitive" tariffs -- up to 100 percent -- on $7.5 billion in European imports, senior U.S. trade officials say they have decided to impose 10 percent tariffs on large civil aircraft and 25 percent tariffs on some European food products, British apparel, blankets and bed linen, some Irish and Scotch whiskey, German or British hand tools, lenses, books and self-propelled heavy equipment. The tariffs will go into effect Oct. 18, the officials said, and a Federal Register notice with the details is expected Oct. 3. The USTR's full list includes more than 150 tariff lines, though some are only part of the eight-digit line.
Sigal Mandelker, the Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, is resigning to return to the private sector, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Oct. 2. In a statement. Mnuchin called Mandelker a “fierce advocate for effectively leveraging our powerful economic tools to make an impact for a safer world,” according to Reuters. Mnuchin said Mandelker made the decision to resign over the summer.
U.S. companies and trade associations criticized China’s high import tariffs, inconsistent import clearance procedures and restrictive sanitary requirements in comments to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative ahead of an Oct. 2 hearing on China’s commitment to World Trade Organization obligations.
India blocked a first request from the U.S. for the World Trade Organization to form a panel to judge whether the hike in tariffs that India instituted because of the U.S. tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum breaks the rules. The panel is automatically convened after a second request. India delayed retaliating for the Section 232 tariffs for many months, but put them in place after the U.S. removed India from the Generalized System of Preferences benefits program.
The trade dispute between the European Union and Indonesia could allow U.S. dairy exporters to capture more market access in Indonesia, the International Dairy Foods Association said in an Oct. 1 press release. The dispute, which includes EU import tariffs on Indonesian biodiesel and is expected to include Indonesian retaliatory tariffs on EU dairy products, comes as the U.S. Department of Agriculture leads a dairy industry delegation to Jakarta, the IDFA said. The delegation is aiming to “strengthen bonds” with Indonesian dairy importers, the press release said, and “could be an opportunity for U.S. dairy exporters to grow market share.”
Export Compliance Daily is providing readers with some of the top stories for Sept. 23-27 in case they were missed.
The Japan-South Korea dispute is unlikely to be resolved soon, and some blame should be placed on the U.S., trade experts said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event on Sept. 30. While former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens said the Trump administration's use of export controls to address trade issues might have encouraged Japan and South Korea to take similar steps, former National Security Council staff member Michael Green said U.S. inaction is partly responsible for the escalating tensions.