Escalation in the U.S.-China trade war will continue "until both sides feel enough economic, market and/or political pain to strike a deal," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch global economists Ethan Harris and Aditya Bhave in a research report Tuesday. "The recent escalation has opened an almost insurmountable gap in terms of numbers and trust," said the economists. "The only real question is whether the Trump Administration takes the politically dangerous step of imposing tariffs on headline consumer products in December," as it's scheduled to do mid-month, they said. "We think they give it a go: given the supply chain lags it will mainly impact consumer prices after the holidays. All told we expect US tariffs against China to increase from about $63bn in August to more than $115bn by yearend, with Chinese tariffs on US products rising from $20bn to $25bn." Closer to the 2020 election, "we expect a prolonged pause in the US-China trade war, with continued tough rhetoric and behind-the-scenes action by the US Commerce Department, but no major new tariffs," Smith and Bhave said. BofA ML estimates Amazon would need to hike prices an average of 2.1 percent on its first-party goods to "offset the impact" of the 15 percent List 4 tariffs, said analysts Justin Post and Michael McGovern in a separate report. Should List 4 tariffs rise to 25 percent, Amazon would need to raise prices 3.5 percent in its first-party marketplace, they said.
The planned U.S. and Chinese tariff increases are expected to go forward as scheduled and escalation will continue "until both sides feel enough economic, market and/or political pain to strike a deal," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch global economists Ethan Harris and Aditya Bhave in a Sept. 3 research report. "The recent escalation has opened an almost insurmountable gap in terms of numbers and trust," the economists said. "The only real question is whether the Trump Administration takes the politically dangerous step of imposing tariffs on headline consumer products in December. We think they give it a go: given the supply chain lags it will mainly impact consumer prices after the holidays. All told we expect US tariffs against China to increase from about $63bn in August to more than $115bn by yearend, with Chinese tariffs on US products rising from $20bn to $25bn."
The FCC should grant an NTCA petition for waiver of a Dec. 1 update to minimum standards and voice support for the Lifeline program, said comments posted in docket 11-42 late last week by rural LEC consulting firm TCA. Increasing the minimum broadband service requirement to 20 Mbps downstream and 3 Mbps upstream could force consumers to buy more-expensive packages, TCA said. The Oregon Public Utility Commission also supported the waiver (see 1908290039). Don't "force Lifeline consumers’ to bear a higher cost of service by forcing them to subscribe to more expensive broadband service tiers to retain their Lifeline support,” TCA asked. The FCC should take up NTCA’s proposal to grandfather current speeds, while allowing customers to voluntarily shift to higher ones, the firm said. “Granting this waiver will ensure participants of the Lifeline Program remain connected by either voice or broadband as well as help RLECs be the link for keeping low-income customers connected.” The National Lifeline Association and Q Link Wireless spoke with an aide to Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel in support of a CTIA petition seeking a pause of the Dec. 1 change to minimum service standards. “If left unchanged, the December 2019 minimum service standards will effectively impose a $30/month price increase on Lifeline subscribers -- a price increase that these subscribers cannot afford,” they filed. NaLA and Q Link urged ensuring the national verifier doesn’t proceed to hard launch in any state “until a robust” application programming interface and access to state/federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid databases are in place. State regulators said similar last week (see reports, Aug. 30 and Sept. 3).
The FCC should grant an NTCA petition for waiver of a Dec. 1 update to minimum standards and voice support for the Lifeline program, said comments posted in docket 11-42 late last week by rural LEC consulting firm TCA. Increasing the minimum broadband service requirement to 20 Mbps downstream and 3 Mbps upstream could force consumers to buy more-expensive packages, TCA said. The Oregon Public Utility Commission also supported the waiver (see 1908290039). Don't "force Lifeline consumers’ to bear a higher cost of service by forcing them to subscribe to more expensive broadband service tiers to retain their Lifeline support,” TCA asked. The FCC should take up NTCA’s proposal to grandfather current speeds, while allowing customers to voluntarily shift to higher ones, the firm said. “Granting this waiver will ensure participants of the Lifeline Program remain connected by either voice or broadband as well as help RLECs be the link for keeping low-income customers connected.” The National Lifeline Association and Q Link Wireless spoke with an aide to Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel in support of a CTIA petition seeking a pause of the Dec. 1 change to minimum service standards. “If left unchanged, the December 2019 minimum service standards will effectively impose a $30/month price increase on Lifeline subscribers -- a price increase that these subscribers cannot afford,” they filed. NaLA and Q Link urged ensuring the national verifier doesn’t proceed to hard launch in any state “until a robust” application programming interface and access to state/federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid databases are in place. State regulators said similar last week (see reports, Aug. 30 and Sept. 3).
State regulators found much to like in what little they know about coming FCC Lifeline changes, when we surveyed all NARUC Telecom Committee members this and last week. All respondents are happy their federal counterparts appear poised to clarify states can continue being the ones to decide whether telecom providers can be designated as eligible for the USF program for the poor. Many like the idea of the Universal Service Administrative Co. sharing more information. An FCC "backgrounder" given to news media said that would boost "transparency with states to improve oversight of the Lifeline program, including by directing USAC to share information regarding suspicious activity with state officials."
Lifeline reseller TruConnect asked FCC officials to pause Lifeline minimum service standards set to take effect in December, in support of a joint petition asking the agency to wait for the results of a pending market study, said a filing posted Monday in docket 17-287. Representing TruConnect, ex-Georgia Republican legislator Judson Hill had meetings Thursday with Chairman Ajit Pai, Commissioners Mike O'Rielly, and bureau staff and aides including to Geoffrey Starks, asking that the Lifeline national verifier program revert to a soft launch until all relevant databases are secure and operable at the state level. Hill said non-facilities-based eligible telecom carriers should be able to participate in providing broadband connections as part of the upcoming telehealth pilot program for low-income consumers.
Lifeline reseller TruConnect asked FCC officials to pause Lifeline minimum service standards set to take effect in December, in support of a joint petition asking the agency to wait for the results of a pending market study, said a filing posted Monday in docket 17-287. Representing TruConnect, ex-Georgia Republican legislator Judson Hill had meetings Thursday with Chairman Ajit Pai, Commissioners Mike O'Rielly, and bureau staff and aides including to Geoffrey Starks, asking that the Lifeline national verifier program revert to a soft launch until all relevant databases are secure and operable at the state level. Hill said non-facilities-based eligible telecom carriers should be able to participate in providing broadband connections as part of the upcoming telehealth pilot program for low-income consumers.
CEO Issa Asad and other Q Link executives met with FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly, aides to Chairman Ajit Pai and Commissioner Geoffrey Starks, and Wireline Bureau staff on a pending petition by CTIA, the National Consumer Law Center and others to pause December implementation of Lifeline minimum service standards, pending a market study. “Q Link is part of a wide and deep coalition of stakeholders supporting the Joint Petition’s request to pause any increases in the mobile broadband minimum service standard and to retain full Lifeline support for standalone voice and voice-centric bundles until the Commission can study the impact of such changes on access to and affordability of Lifeline services for low-income consumers and report on such findings,” it filed, posted Friday in docket 17-287. “Failure to grant the Joint Petition would result in less broadband for Lifeline subscribers.”
CEO Issa Asad and other Q Link executives met with FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly, aides to Chairman Ajit Pai and Commissioner Geoffrey Starks, and Wireline Bureau staff on a pending petition by CTIA, the National Consumer Law Center and others to pause December implementation of Lifeline minimum service standards, pending a market study. “Q Link is part of a wide and deep coalition of stakeholders supporting the Joint Petition’s request to pause any increases in the mobile broadband minimum service standard and to retain full Lifeline support for standalone voice and voice-centric bundles until the Commission can study the impact of such changes on access to and affordability of Lifeline services for low-income consumers and report on such findings,” it filed, posted Friday in docket 17-287. “Failure to grant the Joint Petition would result in less broadband for Lifeline subscribers.”
The Wireless Infrastructure Association plans a push in coming months to get the FCC to move forward on an additional wireless infrastructure order, focused on rules for approving collocations, President Jonathan Adelstein said in an interview last week. Last year, the agency, where he used to be a Democratic commissioner, approved two major wireless infrastructure orders. Both are targets of court actions.