Many things about the U.S.-China trade war have not turned out as experts expected, panelists said at the Washington International Trade Association Oct. 2. Chad Bown, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former White House economist, said that 18 months ago, people would have not expected there to be 15 percent to 30 percent tariffs on more than half of Chinese imports, with nearly all the rest slated for tariffs by December, and yet, the economy is doing OK. "Markets haven't panicked," he said. But Bown said he's not that surprised that the country hasn't seen a massive effect from the trade war, since the tariffs in place the longest were on inputs, and because, compared to the size of the entire economy, "we don't actually trade all that much."

Revenue declined 23 percent in Micron Technology’s fiscal year 2019 ended Aug. 29, but senior executives on a fiscal Q4 call Sept. 26 wouldn’t break out how much of the decrease was attributable to the disruption in shipments to Huawei. Revenue in Q4 was down 42 percent from a year earlier, but up 2 percent sequentially, exceeding Micron’s previous guidance on better-than-expected demand in the quarter, the company said. “In recent months, we have seen increased demand from customers headquartered in mainland China,” CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said. Some customers “could be making strategic decisions to build higher levels of inventory in the face of increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China,” he said. The components Micron sells have heavy exposure in the first three rounds of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. President Donald Trump announced in August he would hike those tariffs Oct. 1.

The International Trade Administration announced five upcoming trade missions to beheld between November 2019 and April 2020. In November, ITA will lead an additive manufacturing trade mission to Europe, “designed to help export-ready U.S. companies launch or increase their export business in the rapidly advancing AM and 3D printing industries of France, Germany, and Poland.” Then, in February, an “envirotech executive service mission” will head to India to promote the wastewater industry, followed by an optional “Gold Key Service” in Mumbai or Hyderabad. Then, in March, ITA will lead the “Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth through Energy) Business Development Mission’ to Indonesia and Vietnam for the energy industry. Finally, in April 2020, it will lead a cross-industry trade mission to Asia in conjunction with the Trade Winds Business Forum in Hong Kong.

The planned U.S. and Chinese tariff increases are expected to go forward as scheduled and escalation will continue "until both sides feel enough economic, market and/or political pain to strike a deal," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch global economists Ethan Harris and Aditya Bhave in a Sept. 3 research report. "The recent escalation has opened an almost insurmountable gap in terms of numbers and trust," the economists said. "The only real question is whether the Trump Administration takes the politically dangerous step of imposing tariffs on headline consumer products in December. We think they give it a go: given the supply chain lags it will mainly impact consumer prices after the holidays. All told we expect US tariffs against China to increase from about $63bn in August to more than $115bn by yearend, with Chinese tariffs on US products rising from $20bn to $25bn."

FedEx agreed to acquire Cargex S.A., a Colombian freight forwarder that specializes in customs brokerage services, FedEx said in a news release. "This addition strengthens the FedEx air freight forwarding and customs brokerage capabilities in Colombia and the broader Latin American region," FedEx said. "The acquisition is expected to close later this year and is subject to customary closing conditions, as well as a Colombian regulatory filing." After the purchase is completed, Cargex will be a subsidiary of FedEx Logistics, FedEx said. Terms of the deal weren't released.

The escalating trade rhetoric between the U.S. and China should make all companies “realize (if you have not already) that this is not a temporary dispute and is not likely to be resolved anytime soon,” customs lawyer Ted Murphy with Baker & McKenzie blogged on Aug. 9. “The two sides are doubling down and digging in.” With 2020 elections “inching closer” and China’s 70th birthday of the People's Republic festivities set for October, “the political considerations associated with these events make it less likely that a deal will be reached,” he said. “As a result, companies should be re-examining/re-adjusting their supply chains and pursuing additional Section 301 mitigation strategies,” while taking “a view to the medium/long term,” Murphy said.

Tariffs Hurt the Heartland says importers paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, up $2.5 billion, or 74 percent, from the same month in 2018. The report, based on Census data, covers the first month when Section 301 tariffs on $200 billion in imports from China were at 25 percent rather than 10 percent. The advocacy group also noted that June was the 11th month in a row that American exports targeted for retaliation declined by more than 15 percent.

Avalara, a tax compliance software company, bought Portway International, Avalara said in an Aug. 2 news release. Portway, which is based in Canada "provides customers with Harmonized System classifications and outsourced customs brokerage services." Scott McFarlane, CEO of Avalara, said that by "combining Portway’s experience and knowledge of cross-border compliance with Avalara’s advanced technologies and expansive product content, we can help businesses reach new customers in new regions with confidence.” Terms of the deal weren't released.

Imports from China to the U.S. fell 12 percent in the first half of 2019 compared with the January-June period in 2018, and exports to China fell by nearly 19 percent, a new Commerce Department report found. Although imports and exports to Canada were also down, Canada has now surpassed China as the second-largest U.S. trading partner in goods. Mexican imports were up 6.7 percent in the first half the year, and it is now the top trading partner in goods, with $311 billion in two-way trade from January to June. Canada was at $306 billion, despite a decline in both import and export volume. China's two-way trade with the U.S. was close to $290 billion.

George Mason University will open a new Anti-Illicit Trade Institute within the existing Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, the university said in a news release. David Luna, CEO of Luna Global Networks and a former U.S. diplomat, will help lead the program, GMU said. The new institute will also be led by Louise Shelley, a GMU professor, it said. "Beginning in 2020, the AITI will include a core of anti-illicit trade executive-tailored courses and online instruction related to developing effective strategies for fighting illicit markets; investigating and prosecuting illicit trade (the importance of intelligence -- and information-sharing across borders); targeting webs of corruption and criminality by following the money and 'value' (money-laundering/trade-based money-laundering); tackling cybercrime and dismantling online markets related to Intellectual Property (IP) crime including counterfeit and pirated goods; and other important anti-crime and criminal justice areas," it said.