August imports as tallied by the National Retail Federation in its “global port tracker” report rose to a record high for the second straight month, said the trade group in a Tuesday announcement. The trend bodes well for an upbeat holiday selling season, said NRF: “When imports break records two months in a row, it’s hard to see that as anything other than a good sign about what retailers expect in consumer demand. Consumers are buying more, and everybody from dockworkers to truck drivers is trying to keep up. We hope this is a sign of a strong holiday season for retailers, shoppers and our nation’s economy.” Ports covered in the tracker report handled 1.8 million 20-foot-long cargo containers or their equivalents in August, the highest monthly volume since NRF began tracking imports in 2000, said the trade group. The previous record of 1.78 million containers was set a month earlier, in July, it said. NRF is forecasting 2017 imports to rise 5.4 percent from last year to 19.8 million containers, topping 2016’s 3.1 percent increase over 2015, it said. NRF’s forecast last week said holiday retail sales for November and December would rise 3.6-4 percent over 2016 (see 1710030036).

The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales in November and December, excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants, to rise 3.6-4 percent from last year to $678.75 billion-$682 billion, the trade group said in a Tuesday announcement. NRF’s forecast “reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and overall strength of the industry,” said CEO Matthew Shay in a statement. Though 2017 “hasn’t been perfect, especially with the recent devastating hurricanes, we believe that a longer shopping season and strong consumer confidence will deliver retailers a strong holiday season,” said Shay. This year’s forecast would meet or exceed last year’s growth of 3.6 percent and the five-year average of 3.5 percent, said NRF. Christmas Day falls 32 days after Thanksgiving this year, one shopping day more than last year, and is on a Monday instead of Sunday, giving consumers an extra weekend day to complete their shopping, it said. Said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz: “Consumers continue to do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy, and all the fundamentals are aligned for them to continue doing so during the holidays. The combination of job creation, improved wages, tame inflation and an increase in net worth provide the capacity and the confidence to spend."

The percentage of U.S. TV households that subscribe to a pay-TV service fell again in 2017 to 79 percent, from 84 percent in 2014, 88 percent in 2010 and 81 percent in 2004, said a Leichtman Research Group report Tuesday. The decline in pay-TV penetration isn’t only about recent disconnects, said President Bruce Leichtman. Among nonsubscribers, “about one-third subscribed in the past three years, one-third subscribed over three years ago, and one-third never subscribed," he said. Twenty-nine percent of TV households with annual incomes under $50,000 don’t subscribe to a pay-TV service vs. 16 percent with incomes above $50,000, said the report, and 30 percent of consumers that moved in the past year don’t currently subscribe to a pay-TV service, a higher level than in previous years. Thirty-nine percent of one-TV households are nonsubscribers vs. 24 percent of two-TV households and 12 percent with three or more TVs, it said. Ten percent of respondents in the August telephone survey of 1,201 adults age 18 and older planned to subscribe to a pay-TV service in the next six months, including 7 percent who never subscribed.

Consumer intentions to buy new TV sets declined significantly in September from August, according to preliminary Conference Board data released Tuesday. Nielsen canvassed 5,000 homes through Sept. 18 and found 12.7 percent plan to buy a new TV in the next six months, down from 14 percent in August, but up slightly from 12.6 percent in July and unchanged from 12.7 percent in September 2016. Overall consumer confidence declined slightly in September after two straight months of increases, it said: “Despite the slight downtick in confidence, consumers’ assessment of current conditions remains quite favorable and their expectations for the short-term suggest the economy will continue expanding at its current pace.”

The National Retail Federation plans a Wednesday news conference at Shop.org, its annual digital commerce show, to release a new consumer research report that will address “customer trends that are transforming retail as we know it,” said the trade group. Shop.org opens Monday at the Los Angeles Convention Center for a three-day run.

Apple’s AirPods, on protracted delivery schedules for most of the year, are showing widespread availability at mainstream e-commerce sites, despite Apple’s own two-to-three-week shipping window on its website. Best Buy showed in-store availability Friday and a shipping delivery date of Wednesday. Target had the $159 earphones with a six-day delivery window Friday and an in-store pickup date of Sept. 8. Despite the supply and demand mismatch over most of the year, Apple was able to take full command of the nascent “totally wireless” headphone space, ringing up 85 percent of sales, according to an NPD report last week. NPD defines the category as headphones with no headband and no wires. More than 900,000 totally wireless headphone units were sold in the U.S. since the start of the year, it said. Apple’s “early domination” of the category will continue to challenge competing brands, said analyst Ben Arnold. “New entrants will have to provide some differentiation in features, sound quality, or associated services and applications in order to stand out,” he said. Voice control could be one such differentiator, Arnold said. “As Alexa skills and other voice-first content diversifies, headphones, including totally wireless earbuds, are the leading candidate to be the next piece of hardware to drive digital assistant adoption.”

Consumer intentions to buy new TV sets jumped in August from July, according to preliminary Conference Board data released Tuesday. Nielsen canvassed 5,000 homes through Aug. 16 and found 13.8 percent plan to buy a new TV in the next six months, up from 12.6 percent in July and 13.6 percent in August 2016, it said. Overall consumer confidence increased in August for the second straight month, it said: “Consumers’ short-term expectations were relatively flat, though still optimistic, suggesting that they do not anticipate an acceleration in the pace of economic activity in the months ahead.”

Sales of personal computing devices (PCDs), comprising desktops, notebooks and workstations, will continue to decline through 2021, said a Thursday ABI Research forecast. Globally, PCD shipments will decline from 435.1 million units last year to 398.3 million units in 2021, it said. Tablets are expected to continue their slide “as the appeal of slate devices diminishes” and life cycles expand to parallel those of PCs, it said. Detachable tablets, meanwhile, will continue to grow, but ABI scaled back its short-term forecast as OEMs are making a “slower transition from notebook PCs to detachables than previously expected.” PC users, especially consumers, “continue to stretch the life of older PCs” and in the process spend less while spreading computing use over a portfolio of devices, said analyst Loren Loverde. Notebook PCs will see “small but steady” year-over-year growth from 2019-2021, said Loverde. Detachable PCs, tablets and convertible notebooks will be the fastest growing segments with a compound annual growth rate of more than 14 percent, said the research firm. Category shipments could pick up on any of a number of accelerators including economic conditions, gaming adoption, virtual reality and Windows 10, “but even in the best case, overall growth would likely remain limited,” said Loverde.

Personalization of linear TV channels in pay-TV services has been difficult to achieve, but artificial intelligence is allowing some personalization of linear pay-TV channels delivered over IP, nScreenMedia analyst Colin Dixon blogged Sunday. ZoneTV -- which plans to launch "dynamic channels” on pay-TV systems later this year (see 1707250035) -- will use AI to track viewer actions to gradually make content more customized to specific viewers, nScreenMedia said. It said a combination of AI and traditional channel programming modes should make people view longer -- an approach that also could be applied to advertising, lowering the risk people will change channels during a break.

More than 20 percent of U.S. broadband homes have a technical support subscription, said a Tuesday Parks Associates report. Best Buy leads in tech support subscriptions, including owning 29 percent of the flat-panel TV market, but Amazon’s nascent in-home tech support service is a “notable threat” said Parks. The market for support subscriptions is “fragmented,” said analyst Patrice Samuels, saying no single company has more than a third of subscribers for any device. Among laptop owners with support subscriptions, 22 percent chose Best Buy over services offered by HP, AT&T, Norton and Verizon, said Parks. Amazon charges one-time fees for its services, which will likely have an impact on the model, it said. In the smart home category, newcomers Amazon Home Services and HelloTech offer one-time transaction pricing for support, it said.