The installed base of roaming 5G subscribers is projected to reach 210 million people globally in 2026 from 4.5 million this year, reported Juniper Research Monday. As 5G roaming “proliferates,” vendor competition for such roaming services will “intensify,” it said. Juniper forecasts that global roaming data traffic from 5G subscribers will increase to 770 petabytes by 2026, from 2.6 PB this year, “enough data to stream 115 million hours of 4K video from platforms like Netflix.” One petabyte is 1,000 terabytes.

The 10-year Dish Network/AT&T network service agreement (see 2107190003) "is a game changer for Dish and a disastrous result for the wireless incumbents," practically assuring viability for Dish's wireless plans and upping the odds of a strategic partnership and future financing, MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett wrote investors Monday. The mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) agreement now extending well past expiration of the 2026 no-sale prohibition opens the door to a possible sale of Dish's spectrum or its entire business, he said. The AT&T agreement buys Dish breathing room to expand its network beyond the 70% of the U.S. population it has to cover by 2025 by eliminating the danger it faced with its T-Mobile MVNO expiring in 2027, and it raises the chances of Dish to be competitive to the Big Three wireless carriers, Moffett said.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI), Qualcomm and Ford backed a 5G Automotive Association petition for partial reconsideration of reallocating the 5.9 GHz band (see 2106030075), but Wi-Fi advocates opposed AAI and 5GAA recon petitions, in filings posted Thursday and Friday in docket 19-138. AAI agrees with 5GAA the FCC should revise its out-of-band emissions limit “to ensure that lifesaving [vehicle-to-everything] technology can function optimally, without the risk of harmful interference, in the upper 30-megahertz segment of the 5.9 GHz band,” it said: “The limit adopted in the Order fails to account for the difference in measured signal levels when using [root mean square] rather than peak power evaluations, is even more permissive than the limits proposed by unlicensed advocates, and threatens to imperil the functioning of critical V2X applications.” The limits “will harmfully interfere” with cellular-V2X and “are not needed to support robust and reliable … unlicensed services” in the band, Qualcomm commented. “Promptly approve the service rules for C-V2X proposed by 5GAA.” Ford agreed with 5GAA that “in multiple respects, the Order’s choice of unwanted emission limits fails to satisfy the Commission’s obligation under the Administrative Procedure Act to fully consider all the relevant facts and to articulate a reasoned explanation of how those facts support its decisions.” The alliance’s petition doesn't “warrant consideration,” the Wireless ISP Association countered. Rather than identifying “any material error or omission,” the group “relies on vague speculation about possible future actions by DOT” or by Congress,” WISPA said. The Wi-Fi Alliance opposed both recon petitions: The 5.9 GHz order “correctly recognizes that additional spectrum is necessary to not only meet, but to keep ahead of current connectivity demands, while also preserving spectrum access for intelligent transportation services.” NCTA and New America’s Open Technology Institute with Public Knowledge, opposed both petitions (see here and here).

AT&T added nearly 800,000 postpaid phone subscribers in Q2, it reported Thursday, joining Verizon in adding them amid continuing competition from T-Mobile (see 2107210054). AT&T also beat profit estimates and grew HBO Max. CEO John Stankey told analysts AT&T's spinoff of WarnerMedia, combining it with Discovery (see 2105160003), is in early stages. “No news is good news,” he said: “It's a lot of work with the regulatory agencies and document production and providing information that's responsive to their requests so that they can begin the reviews.” Executives said the wireless adds were the most for any Q2 in the past 10 years. AT&T added 1.16 million wireless customers, compared with some analyst estimates of 300,000 and 2.8 million total domestic HBO Max and HBO subscribers. Postpaid churn was 0.87% vs. 1.05% in the year-ago quarter. “Gross adds are up, churn is at record low levels and our average promotional spend per net add is significantly lower than a year ago,” said Chief Financial Officer Pascal Desroches. COVID-19 drove down results a year ago, Desroches said. “While the pandemic is still having some impact on our results, we're seeing our businesses emerge stronger than before.” AT&T’s $5 billion, 10-year deal with Dish Network (see 2107190003) will be good for both companies, Stankey said: “When somebody is going to be successful, it’s always nice for us to be successful along with them.” Profit was $1.9 billion, up from $1.6 billion a year ago. Revenue was $44 billion, up from $41 billion. The AT&T and Verizon results raise some questions, New Street’s Jonathan Chaplin told investors. “Low churn at AT&T and Verizon ought to result in slower growth for the share gainers (T-Mobile; Cable); however, the strong growth in Wholesale revenue at Verizon suggests strong adds at Cable, and we suspect T-Mobile will do just fine also,” he said: “We still need to untangle the mystery of too much growth in US wireless.” Results were “inarguably very strong,” said MoffettNathanson’s Craig Moffett. “Solid growth comes with the asterisk of extreme promotionality that is still suppressing” earnings and growth is “lagging well behind Verizon’s, despite much faster unit growth,” he said.

AT&T and Washington, D.C., area builder JBG Smith signed a letter of intent to work together on “the first 5G Smart City at scale” at the National Landing development, with deployments starting early next year. “5G, with local area compute edges, could make National Landing a prototype for smart cities of the future,” the companies said Tuesday: “The area could also enhance offerings in mobility and self-driving vehicles, immersive retail and entertainment, and building automation and environmental sustainability.”

Dish Network's mobile customers will use AT&T's wireless network in addition to Dish's 5G network under a network services agreement announced by the two companies Monday. The agreement says AT&T will be the primary network services partner for Dish mobile virtual network operator customers. They said AT&T will also provide transport and roaming services to support Dish's 5G network. "Teaming with AT&T on this long-term partnership will allow us to better compete in the retail wireless market and quickly respond to changes in our customers' evolving connectivity needs as we build our own first-of-its kind 5G network," said Dish Chief Operating Officer and Group President-Retail Wireless John Swieringa. Under the terms of the 10-year NSA, Dish will pay AT&T at least $5 billion and AT&T can deploy portions of Dish's spectrum to support Dish customers on the AT&T network. New Street Research's Jonathan Chaplin, in a note to investors, said presumably AT&T would pay Dish for use of the spectrum or Dish would get a reduction in what it's paying AT&T under the MVNO. He said the deal was likely driven by Dish's issues with T-Mobile shutting down the Sprint CDMA network that many of Dish's Boost customers rely on. Chaplin said the Dish/AT&T deal could indicate a DirecTV/Dish DBS deal could be more plausible since it indicates a willingness for AT&T and Dish to work together. He said such an agreement would face regulatory challenges "though we see it as a hurdle; not a barrier."

Nokia supports open radio access networks for 5G, President Pekka Lundmark told FCC acting Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel. Nokia also backs “a broader U.S. strategy that extends support to 5G use case and app development acceleration and foundational 6G R&D in addition to Open RAN,” said a filing posted Monday in docket 21-63. Nokia also updated Rosenworcel on the global semiconductor shortage, saying “prioritization for the automotive sector has created additional scarcity for fabrication runs, thereby raising longer term risks for disruption to U.S. 5G plans.”

The $8.3 billion five-year “landmark” deal announced Friday to supply 5G solutions to Verizon is the largest contract in Ericsson’s history, said CEO Borje Ekholm on a Q2 call. “We see the North American market moving very fast with a strong demand for 5G and it will be a key opportunity now as the operators are building out mid-band spectrum that will be lit up at the end of the year.” The big priority is building out coverage, followed by density, “because ultimately that is what's going to give the end consumer the user experience of 5G,” he said. Ericsson is “the largest contributor to the overall alliance” on open radio access network standards, but “we recognize there is a need to build out the 5G networks around the world right now,” he said. “Purpose-built networks actually can deliver the performance that's required in 5G today.” By the time ORAN is ready for broad commercialization, “we will also be there with solutions, but we don't feel it's the right time right now and divert focus from actually what goes on in the market,” he said.

5G has a role to play in infrastructure and closing the digital divide, FCC acting Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said on an Axios webinar Friday, as Congress debates whether wireless will be a major part of infrastructure spending plans (see 2107150046). Much of the discussion has been on extending the reach of fiber networks, Rosenworcel said. “We really need to have robust connections to those towers … to make sure our wireless networks can deliver all that 5G has to offer.” About 50 million Americans are on 5G , Rosenworcel said. She noted the importance of 5G to IoT. Next-generation machine learning and artificial intelligence are “where the real 5G revolution comes,” she said. Rosenworcel said the FCC “made a mistake” last administration putting too much emphasis on high-band spectrum, repeating a criticism she made as a minority commissioner. Millimeter-wave 5G requires “lots of ground-based facilities,” which are “really costly” to deploy, she said. Mid-band is “the sweet spot” and “how we’re going to deploy 5G,” she said. “We’re doing a lot to fix where we were.” The FCC started the C-band auction, the first mid-band auction for 5G, under former Chairman Ajit Pai (see 2012080040). "The last FCC took unprecedented action to advance American leadership in 5G,” Pai emailed now. “A key part of that plan was freeing up spectrum for the commercial marketplace,” he said, noting the citizens broadband radio service and C-band auction. “Notably, today's leadership voted against each and every one of these measures,” he said: “The agency is now going backward on mid-band by putting on ice the 2.5 GHz auction and the 4.9 GHz initiative." Commissioner Brendan Carr "is proud that he voted in favor of freeing up more than six gigahertz of spectrum for licensed 5G services," a spokesperson emailed: “There is work ahead if this Commission is going to match the pace and cadence it hit with mid-band spectrum over the past few years.” Rosenworcel says the 2.5 GHz auction would come following the 3.45 GHz auction. Mid-band means more 5G outside urban centers, she said now. "That future is not quite here yet.” Broadband is becoming “critical infrastructure,” said Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon. Governments “should care,” he said. “I have not met a single government that does not worry about how they can build 5G and how fast.” Amon also noted the debate in Congress: “For the first time, you have a cellular technology that can really replace, or augment, fiber deployment,” which will be easier to build in rural areas. Amon predicted most major U.S. cities will have 5G in 2021, and it will cover the “majority of the country” by Dec. 31, 2022. Most Manufacturing Institute members report they hope to use 5G in their plants by year's end, said Executive Director Carolyn Lee: “They also recognize that the speed with which 5G is deployed will really impact their ability to be globally competitive.”

Dell’Oro's raised forecast sees radio access network revenue approaching $250 billion worldwide 2020-25 “to accommodate the surging demand for 5G.” 5G new radio revenue should be $150 billion-$200 billion and base station shipments should top 30 million, Friday's forecast said: Global macro and small-cell transceiver shipments should approach 800 million. “The global upswing that began in the second half of 2018 has become deeper and stronger,” said analyst Stefan Pongratz: “There is room for expansion over the near term as the early adopters continue to roll out 5G at an extraordinary pace.”