Business and labor leaders and government insider panelists agreed that the U.S.-China trade war will be difficult to unravel, but disagreed on how quickly Democrats could -- or should -- resolve outstanding issues on the NAFTA rewrite. The trade panel Oct. 10, hosted by Fiscal Note, included Clete Willems, former White House deputy assistant to the president for international economics, who said that although it pained him to say it, "The political conditions in both countries are just not conducive to the big deal."
Mara Lee
Mara Lee, Senior Editor, is a reporter for International Trade Today and its sister publications Export Compliance Daily and Trade Law Daily. She joined the Warren Communications News staff in early 2018, after covering health policy, Midwestern Congressional delegations, and the Connecticut economy, insurance and manufacturing sectors for the Hartford Courant, the nation’s oldest continuously published newspaper (established 1674). Before arriving in Washington D.C. to cover Congress in 2005, she worked in Ohio, where she witnessed fervent presidential campaigning every four years.
Many things about the U.S.-China trade war have not turned out as experts expected, panelists said at the Washington International Trade Association Oct. 2. Chad Bown, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former White House economist, said that 18 months ago, people would have not expected there to be 15 percent to 30 percent tariffs on more than half of Chinese imports, with nearly all the rest slated for tariffs by December, and yet, the economy is doing OK. "Markets haven't panicked," he said. But Bown said he's not that surprised that the country hasn't seen a massive effect from the trade war, since the tariffs in place the longest were on inputs, and because, compared to the size of the entire economy, "we don't actually trade all that much."
While U.S. authorities have not released any details on U.S. tariff reductions for Japanese imports, even to stakeholders, a press release from Japan's Economy, Ministry and Industry describes the reductions, which will add up to tens of millions of dollars annually.
When Democrats met in the House of Representatives the morning after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi formally initiated an impeachment inquiry, the bulk of the meeting was an optimistic briefing on the progress toward refining the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to satisfy Democratic priorities.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said tariffs on autos are not related to national security. When asked to respond to news reports that the U.S. and Japan could not finish a deal because the U.S. was not willing to promise to spare Japanese autos from those tariffs, he said, "The president ought to give that assurance and get this show on the road."
The promise of good news for farmers in the U.S.-Japan trade deal is oversold, five Democrats told U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, as they complained in a letter about how the deal was negotiated without keeping Congress in the loop.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., said that the two sides made progress again on edits to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement when they met Sept. 20. "Once issues are resolved, they're going to come off the table, and we're not going to revisit them as we proceed to the next one," Neal said. He said the Democrat working group he leads will have a written response for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer next week, when they meet again.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., who leads the working group that aims to win changes to the NAFTA rewrite to make it more palatable to Democrats, said that "it's time to pick up the intensity of the negotiations" with the administration. "I would prefer now that the pace pick up," he said in an interview on Sept. 19, the day before the working group was to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer for the first time since they received a counterproposal from him.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue said he doesn't believe that the Trump administration will declare victory if Chinese buyers return to buying pork, soybeans and corn. "I don't think it will be an agreement of any type until it's a matter of substance," he said.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer sent a written counter-proposal to the House working group the afternoon of Sept. 11, a House Ways & Means spokeswoman said. She declined to say how long and extensive it was.