Satellite/Terrestrial Convergence Seen Encountering Many Obstacles
Converged terrestrial and satellite connectivity is a given, but the path is strewn with unknowns and sizable technological and business stumbling blocks, according to satellite operator CEOs. For example, satellite operators must start thinking and acting like mobile network operators, creating an ecosystem that allows seamless roaming among them, Viasat CEO Mark Dankberg said during Access Intelligence’s Satellite 2024 conference in Washington Wednesday. Separately, space sustainability advocates urged a mission authorization regulatory framework and universal use of design features such as docking plates enabling on-orbit serving or towing. Meanwhile, conference organizers said event attendance reached 14,000.
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Terrestrial/non-terrestrial network convergence requires "a complete rethinking" of space and ground segments, as well as two to three orders of magnitude improvement in data pricing, Dankberg said. Standards will help get satellite and terrestrial to fit together, but that evolution will happen slowly, taking 10 to 15 years, Iridium CEO Matt Desch said. It remains to be seen how direct-to-device services will make money, he added. Satellite-enabled SOS messaging on smartphones "is becoming free, and our satellites are not free -- we need to make money on it some way,” Desch said.
That inevitable convergence is being driven by declining launch costs, maturing technologies and improved manufacturing, all of which make non-terrestrial network connectivity more economically competitive, said EchoStar CEO Hamid Akhavan. He said the EchoStar/Dish Network combination (see 2401020003) was driven in part by that convergence, consolidating EchoStar’s S-band spectrum holdings outside the U.S. with Dish’s S-band holdings inside the country. The deal also melds Dish’s network operator expertise with Hughes’ satellite expertise.
The regulatory environment around satellite has changed tremendously during the past decade, with the FCC very oriented toward mobile networks' spectrum needs and now satellite matters making up most of the agenda for the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference, Desch said. However, there will be regulatory challenges to resolve in satellite/terrestrial convergence, he predicted. There are significant synergies in having a 5G terrestrial network and satcom assets under one roof, he said. Blurring the lines between terrestrial and non-terrestrial makes it easier for manufacturers to build affordable equipment that operates in both modes, Desch said.
To ensure space's sustainability, missions must follow the mantra of "leave nothing behind," sustainability advocates said. Space operators should have more universal protocols and vocabulary when exchanging space situational awareness data, as well as more uniformity in what content gets exchanged, said Space Data Association Executive Director Joe Chan. When it comes to space sustainability, clutter isn't necessarily dangerous, and any rules fostering sustainability should avoid restricting the use of space, he said. Space lawyer Stephanie Roy of Perkins Coie said a mission authorization framework covering space operations that fall outside the regulatory domain of the FCC, FAA and NOAA is needed. Space operators and investors see sustainability rules as inevitable and want to ensure they allow flexibility and don't mandate use of any particular technology, she added. Multiple speakers called for a “circular economy” in space, with more reuse of materials via refueling, reuse or life extension.
Notebook
ITU Secretary-General Doreen Bogdan-Martin urged the satellite industry to join ITU's Partner2Connect digital coalition aimed at addressing digital divide issues, particularly in the least-developed nations and in landlocked and small island developing countries. The digital divide "is right up there" with climate change as a pressing issue for humanity, said Bogdan-Martin. She noted the coalition has received $46 billion in commitments, with a target of $100 billion by 2026.
With earth's population hitting 10 billion by 2050, “feeding the world is dependent on advanced connectivity solutions,” said John Deere Global Combine Business Manager Ryan Krogh. Deere and SpaceX announced a deal in January that has the satellite operator providing connectivity to Deere equipment. Krogh said the agriculture industry is moving toward using AI and machine learning to handle labor shortages and weather unpredictability, and those tools require connectivity. Rural areas are particularly prone to lacking terrestrial connectivity, and the SpaceX deal opens the door to offering a fully autonomous farming system for corn and soybeans in the U.S. by 2030, he said.