2024 Seen as Starting Gun for Sizable DOCSIS 4.0 Deployments
Expect sizable DOCSIS 4.0 technology rollouts among cable ISPs starting in 2024 as they look to set the stage for multi-gig fixed broadband speeds, cable companies and experts said. It will likely be mid- to late next year when rollouts of scale start, and widespread deployment will take years, said Dan Whalen, CEO of broadband access technology company ATX Networks.
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The DOCSIS 4.0 standard is an "interim .... but significant step" toward the cable industry's 10G goal of 10 Gbps symmetrical speeds, and isn't as capital intensive as going to an all-fiber network, said Curtis Knittle, CableLabs vice president-wired technologies. DOCSIS 4.0 equipment will likely become a cable norm over the next two to five years, with most employing it as a route to faster fixed broadband in at least part of their footprint, he said. Many operators will end up with two types of networks running simultaneously -- 4.0 in some areas, fiber to the home in others, he said. Beyond being cheaper than installing a fiber network, DOCSIS 4.0 has some latency and reliability benefits, Knittle said.
Cable modems supporting DOCSIS 4.0 likely won't be available for retail this year, but perhaps by mid 2024, Knittle said. CableLabs announced this month the launch of a DOCSIS 4.0 cable modem certification. Knittle said some vendors indicated they anticipate submitting modems this summer. Some cable operators, meanwhile, have their own DOCSIS 4.0 modems in development, he said.
Before year's end, Comcast "will be the first to deploy the next generation of cable data delivery, DOCSIS 4.0," the company said last week.
Mediacom is "fully on the transition path" to DOCSIS 4.0 in parts of its network and is trying to get equipment that isn't compatible with IP video and DOCSIS 4.0, Tom Larsen, senior vice president-government and public relations, told us. A company project underway in the Des Moines area will provide symmetrical speeds to compete with fiber competitors, and that work will expand to other markets in the coming year, he said. Mediacom's eventual goal is DOCSIS 4.0 for all its legacy markets, while it builds a lot of fiber to the home in new markets, he said.
Getting noncompatible customer premises equipment off the network to prevent signal interference is one of the most challenging parts of the DOCSIS rollout, Larsen said. People with lots of stored hours of content on their DVRs "just don't like to give them up," he said. The move to DOCSIS 3.1 also had changeouts of customer premises equipment, he said. There also are labor pool challenges, with numerous fiber projects going on at the same time Mediacom is doing DOCSIS reconfigurations to its hybrid fiber coaxial network, he said.
Cox Communications' network evolution plan includes upgrades to its hybrid fiber coaxial network via DOCSIS 4.0, and it's doing lab testing, vendor evaluations and reviews of requests for proposals now, a spokesperson emailed.
Charter Communications CEO Chris Winfrey said in late 2022 the cable ISP was accelerating its network upgrade work, including DOCSIS 4.0, with it all to be done by the end of 2025. Charter said it's following a three-step plan of increasing fixed broadband speeds in about 15% of its footprint to allow multi-gig downloads, with that continuing into 2024; use of distributed access architecture and DOCSIS 4.0 modems in another 50% of its footprint; and full DOCSIS 4.0 deployment starting in late 2024 in the remaining 35%. By the end of 2025, Charter will offer 5 Gbps service in more than 85% of its footprint, with a good portion of its footprint offering 10 Gpbs speeds, he said.
Cable One said in a call with analysts in May it's selectively rolling out in various markets. Altice that month said it's focused on DOCSIS 3.1 upgrades for its Western markets, while in the East, where it's already upgraded to 3.1, the focus is on laying fiber.
Some network equipment to support DOCSIS 4.0 is available now, like nodes, while others, like 1.8 GHz amplifiers, won't be available to operators until later this year, said ATX's Whalen. Remote PHY distributed access architecture DOCSIS 4.0 hardware might start being available toward the end of this year, though those would be prototypes, with true field deployable devices more likely in mid-2024, he said.
CableLabs' Knittle said mid-tier and small market operators have interest in 4.0, “but some are on the fence” and waiting to see how it plays out with bigger operators.