NRF Predicts Decline of 23% in Imports for First Half of 2023
The National Retail Federation said that although retail sales should grow this year, their forecast is that containerized imports will decline from January to the end of June, by about 23% compared with the first half of last year.
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Hackett Associates prepares the forecast for NRF, and its Founder Ben Hackett said: “Year-over-year import volumes have been on the decline at most ports since late last year and declining exports out of China highlight the slowdown in demand for consumer goods. Our forecast now projects a larger decline in imports in the first half of this year than we forecast last month. Our view is that imports will remain below recent levels until inflation rates and inventory surpluses are reduced.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.62 million twenty-foot equivalent units -- one 20-foot container or its equivalent -- in March, a 30.6% decline from March 2022.
For all of 2022, imports were 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from 2021, which set a record.