2022 to See First YoY Decline in Online Holiday Shopping, Says NPD
Consumers expect to spend less on holiday gifts this holiday season, including on consumer electronics, said NPD Tuesday, citing the research firm’s annual holiday spending report report. U.S. consumers plan to spend $760 on average during the 2022 season vs. $785 last year.
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More consumers had a negative view of the economy and their personal finances this year vs. 2021, and fewer consumers plan to self-gift, NPD said. About 64% of consumers had a fair/poor view on the state of the economy vs. 56% last year and 37% in 2019. Consumers are less likely to give experiences as gifts this year, the report said, and more plan to see family and friends, with 52% less concerned about COVID-19 than a year ago.
Consumers plan to do more holiday shopping in stores than online, said the report, the “first major decline in anticipated online holiday shoppers,” NPD said. The research firm cited an even bigger falloff in those planning to shop online-only e-commerce sites.
Fewer shoppers perceive Cyber Monday to be the time for the best prices, said the study, with Black Friday ranked No. 1 for the best deals, followed by October sales events such as Amazon’s Early Access event for Prime members. About three-fourths planned to shop the Prime event. The survey of 3,599 consumers was fielded online in September.
Technology and electronics are second in planned physical gifts for the holidays, after clothing and apparel, but they top the list in expected spend at a mean of $765, said the report. “After two years of strong growth supported by at-home pandemic-era needs, consumers expect to spend fewer dollars this holiday season on CE,” said advisor Paul Gagnon. “Categories like smartphones and smartwatches are benefitting from consumers planning to spend more time away from home,” he said. Some 18% of consumers plan to give a subscription service, down 7 points from last year.
The report had two holiday projections: Traditional November-December shopping for discretionary general merchandise categories -- projected to be flat year on year -- and the expanded season starting with early October deals running through early January. The expanded season is seen rising 2.5% vs. last year, NPD said.
Of CE categories, smartphones lead consumer intent to purchase; 27% more consumers are interested in buying a smartphone than during holiday 2020, NPD said. Headphones, tablets and e-readers and smartwatches rounded out the top four CE categories. TVs and smart home products “remain CE staples during the holiday timeframe,” said analyst Ben Arnold: “We can expect promotions to drive unit sales in these categories for the fourth quarter.” Walmart announced deep discounts on big-screen TVs for its first Black Friday event starting. Nov. 7 (see report, this issue).