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Consumers More Cautious; Indicators Show 'Unsteady' Expansion: NRF

Consumers have become “more cautious” and have “cooled their spending,” but it’s not clear if the U.S. is in a recession, said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz Thursday. “Economic indicators are signaling an unsteady U.S. expansion in the…

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face of several headwinds,” Kleinhenz said, citing ongoing inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the “volatile stock market.” Households continue to spend and are using credit cards more, saving less and drawing on savings built up during the pandemic, he said, saying, “Consumer stamina will be the big question going forward.” GDP fell 1.6% year on year in Q1, and another 0.6% in Q2, but gross domestic income (GDI) advanced 1.8% in Q1 and 1.4% in Q2, marking a “sharp contrast” with GDP, Kleinhenz said, saying the numbers “should theoretically be identical.” NRF calculated that core retail sales in July were up 0.8% over June.