TTC to Make Progress on New Multilateral Export Control Regime by Year's End, Raimondo Says
The U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council hopes to make progress around the idea of a new multilateral export control regime by the TTC’s next ministerial meeting this fall, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said. She said the group is thinking about which U.S. and EU technologies are “especially significant” and warrant multilateral controls, such as semiconductor equipment.
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Although the TTC is prioritizing export control collaboration between the U.S. and the EU (see 2205160033), a new multilateral regime would include other producer nations of advanced and sensitive technologies, including chips, Raimondo said during a May 17 call with reporters. She specifically mentioned the Netherlands and Japan.
“Theoretically, you could see a trilateral agreement” with the U.S., the Netherlands and Japan, Raimondo said, adding that a new export control regime would “broaden out beyond” the EU. “This is what we have to figure out between now and the next ministerial,” she said.
Experts have suggested the U.S. and allies need a new multilateral regime aside from Wassenaar, which critics say isn’t built to meet modern export control and proliferation challenges (see 2204150047, 2001020029 and 2009290042). There is also no clear process to remove Russia from Wassenaar and other multilateral regimes, which is partly driving the push for a new formal coalition of countries.
Although creating a new multilateral regime may be “hard to do,” Raimondo also said “it’s not that complicated,” pointing to the close export control collaboration already fostered by many nations because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. “Just as we did with Russia,” countries can “align our control policies so that we are together denying other countries the same technology,” Raimondo said. She expects the TTC to make “really good progress” on the idea before year-end.
Raimondo also lauded U.S. export restrictions against Russia, saying American exports to Russia have fallen by 80% from the invasion in February through May 6. She also said items subject to new Russia-related export licensing requirements have decreased 86% by volume and 97% by value compared with the same period last year.
“These export controls are having a strong and significant effect,” Raimondo said. “We've essentially stopped sending high-tech to Russia, which is what they need for their military.”
The restrictions, along with those imposed by other countries, also are proving very effective in limiting foreign exports to Russia, Raimondo said. She said exports to Russia from Finland and South Korea have fallen by 60% and 62%, respectively.
China’s exports of technology to Russia also have “fallen sharply” since February, Raimondo said, referencing trade data published by Beijing. She said Chinese shipments of laptops have dropped 40%, smartphones by about 66% and exports of telecommunication base stations by 98%.
Although the trade data was provided by the Chinese government, which some lawmakers think may try to help Russia evade sanctions (see 2205030032), Raimondo said she believes the data is accurate. “It's also very consistent with what we're seeing,” she said. “We are not seeing systematic efforts by China to go around our export controls.”
She said trade data from around the world has so far proven the effectiveness of export restrictions. “I'm often asked, are these export controls working?" Raimondo said. “And I think the answer is an unmitigated, unqualified, yes. And I think they're working because we have such a strong coalition of countries around the world participating and enforcing.”