Nov. Retail Sales 'Highest on Record' Despite Flat Sequential Growth: NRF
Seasonally adjusted Census Bureau data showing a 0.3% rise in retail sales in November from October may “look modest,” said the National Retail Federation Wednesday, saying seasonal patterns have been “significantly disrupted by the pandemic.” NRF’s calculation of retail sales…
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-- which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants -- showed November was unchanged from October. Unadjusted November retail sales data calculated by NRF were “the highest on record,” said the trade group, citing year-on-year growth of 14%. Electronics and appliance stores were down 4.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 17.7% unadjusted year-over-year, it said. “Consumers continued spending in November, building on momentum from strong early holiday shopping in October and setting the stage for a bright holiday season,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Consumers’ financial condition “remains healthy,” and they continued to spend despite inflation and COVID-19 being “top of mind,” he said. Strength in the labor market has helped propel “incredibly strong demand, and most shoppers have the income and savings to absorb higher prices driven by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions.” For the first 11 months of 2021, sales as calculated by NRF were up 14.2% over the 2020 period, consistent with its forecast that 2021 retail sales will grow 10.5-13.5% over 2020 to $4.44 trillion-$4.56 trillion. It believes holiday sales for Nov. 1-Dec. 31 could increase 11.5% year on year.