AT&T, Verizon Won't Be Hurt by C-Band Delay -- if Short
AT&T and Verizon agreed to postpone deploying in the first phase of the C band for a month, until Jan. 5, to give the FAA and FCC time to look more closely at the safety implications for radio altimeters. Industry experts told us the National Economic Council asked the two agencies to work together, looking at the 40 or so nations that made the spectrum available for wireless broadband. One area of frustration is that studies haven’t been released and the FCC will seek additional data, officials said. Analysts said if the two big carriers can start deploying in January it won’t be a huge problem for either.
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“Today Verizon and AT&T announced that they will voluntarily pause commercial launch of C-band wireless service to further assess any impact on aviation safety technologies,” the FCC and FAA said. “Aviation safety and technology leadership are national priorities, and with today's announcement these companies have demonstrated their commitment to both,” said the joint statement: The FAA and FCC “will continue to coordinate closely to ensure that the United States keeps pace with the rest of the world in deploying next-generation communications technologies safely and without undue delay."
“It all depends on how long this lasts,” said MoffettNathanson’s Craig Moffett. “If it really is just a month or six weeks, it’s probably not a material issue, particularly given what would have been lost in deployment momentum with the holidays anyway,” he said: “But history says that these things last longer than initial expectations, and if it drags on, it could become a very real problem, especially for Verizon. T-Mobile has a big network 5G advantage versus AT&T and Verizon.”
“We understand the FCC has expressed an openness to some minor mitigations,” New Street’s Blair Levin told investors: “The offers, however, are not near enough to satisfy the FAA. The White House has been involved in mediating the dispute but has not weighed in firmly on one side.” Short term, “any delays should be understood as incremental,” he said. “Most of T-Mobile’s advantage stems from planning and deployment schedules that pre-dated this phase of the FAA/FCC dispute.” The White House didn't comment Thursday.
LightShed’s Walter Piecyk questioned whether issues can be resolved in a month. Verizon paid $52.9 billion for 60% of the A-block licenses, which can be deployed first, AT&T $27.4 billion for the remaining 40%.
AT&T “voluntarily agreed to defer Phase I C-Band deployments for one month … while we continue to work in good faith with the FCC and the FAA to understand the FAA’s asserted co-existence concerns,” a spokesperson emailed: “It is critical that these discussions be informed by the science and the data. That is the only path to enabling experts and engineers to assess whether any legitimate co-existence issues exist.” Verizon declined comment.
“Nearly 40 countries have already adopted rules and deployed hundreds of thousands of 5G base stations in the C-Band at similar frequencies and similar power levels -- and in some instances, at closer proximity to aviation operations -- than 5G will be in the U.S.,” CTIA said in an FCC filing, posted Thursday in docket 18-122: “None of these countries has reported any harmful interference with aviation equipment from these commercial deployments.”
The Aerospace Industries Association seeks “a long-term solution that will protect the flying public by ensuring radio altimeters operate accurately while allowing 5G to roll out safely,” a spokesperson emailed: “There is more to be done, and we look forward to a resolution that prioritizes safety above all and minimizes the disruption of travel.”
The FCC apparently needs access to various studies to make a final decision, said Shane Tews, American Enterprise Institute visiting fellow. That the research isn’t public “is making it more difficult for everyone,” she said.
Industry “should be able to run the studies fairly quickly to see if they can operate without interference with a 400 MHz guard band,” emailed Brian Goemmer, president of AllNet Insights & Analytics. “The guard band issue is more important for the ground deployment … so that cell sites don't interfere with the radio altimeter signals from the ground.” The other issue appears to be whether a cellphone using the C-band on an airplane could interfere. “This is more challenging because the mobile phone transmits more powerful signals than the signals arriving at the plane from the radio altimeter, potentially drowning out the radio altimeter signal, even with 400 MHz of guard band,” he said.
A focus on the international experience “is helpful” to industry since “there is no evidence of any problems and [the band] is widely used elsewhere,” said spectrum consultant Tim Farrar. “FCC and NTIA probably don't have the resources to respond to these issues with both good analysis and technical review of all the options to find win/win solutions,” said former FCC engineer Michael Marcus.
“The FAA’s messaging here is both disturbing and irresponsible,” tweeted Digital Progress Institute President Joel Thayer: “Suggesting that #5G poses flight risks is ignorant of the science. I would expect this from someone in a tinfoil hat, not a federal agency.”