Cable Says It's Not Feeling 5G Competitive Pressures -- Yet
5G remains a theoretical competitive threat to cable, not an actual one, though additional midband and millimeter wave spectrum and new entrants like Dish Network could change that, cable operators and allies said Tuesday at the SCTE Cable-Tec Expo 2021.
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Citing the $42.5 billion in broadband grants in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, NCTA President Michael Powell warned of inevitable waste, fraud and abuse. He said the cable industry will need to show it's a worthy and sober recipient of taxpayer funds that follows through on commitments. "There will be a lot of inexperienced initiatives that show up for that money ... and they won't deliver," Powell said. He said timing expectations in the legislation "are probably absurd," with it taking longer than three years.
5G "is a marketing hoax" that hasn't affected cable so far, though it could in the future if telcos define it clearly and roll it out smartly, said Tom Williams, Schurz Communications chief technology officer. He said cable needs to focus on reliability and stay atop of network upgrades, since its fiber will remain faster than wireless options. Mobile Ecosystem Managing Director Mark Lowenstein said 5G service pricing hasn't been aggressive, indicating carriers aren't likely to offer a significantly disruptive product offering.
Millimeter wave spectrum deployments could bring increased capacity and superfast speeds for wireless carriers, though the focus would likely be on rural and suburban markets that are underserved rather than competing head-on with broadband, said InfoVista Vice President-Professional Services Brad Ralph. Viavi Solutions Product Line Manager Mike Bangert said fixed wireless could end up a competitive challenge for cable operators not making needed investments.
Cisco Chief Technology Officer-Broadband Technologies John Chapman said one challenge for wireless operators is that millimeter wave beams won't go through windows, so home deployments of 5G will require more truck rolls for installations than the industry is used to. He said 5G networks could be an opportunity for cable because the industry could build 5G networks that then are used by various providers. He said a multiple host network makes more sense than every provider building its own 5G network, and there likely isn't the funding available to support so many redundant networks.
Some panelists said the 5G rollout shouldn't ultimately have a huge impact on cable operators' mobile virtual network operator agreements, but Lowenstein said the addition of C-band spectrum to wireless carriers plus Dish's entry could mean competition for cable operators' MVNO business. Asked about cable opportunities in 5G for wireless backhaul, Ralph said telcos typically prefer fiber for backhaul.
NCTA's Powell said 10G is "indispensable" from a policy standpoint for showing that the cable industry is trying to be technologically proactive. "Policy battles are about competing narratives" and lawmakers are less likely to pay attention "if they think you are part of the problem," he said.
CableLabs and NCTA announced the 10G Challenge, which will provide more than $300,000 in prize money to startups, academic researchers and others who develop applications and ideas requiring the cable industry's forthcoming multi-gigabit networks. Submissions will be due in July, CableLabs said.