2021 Box Office to Surpass 2020's, but 'Tent-Pole' Films Needed: Colliers
The 2021 U.S. box office will finish 119% above that of pandemic-plagued 2020, assuming current release slates hold, Colliers analyst Steven Frankel wrote investors Monday. Colliers sees 2022 coming in 123% above 2021 but 10% lower than 2019. Many lower-budget…
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films slated for theater release “shifted to streaming to quickly recoup production budgets, while most large-budget films were pushed to 2021 and 2022,” Frankel said. Estimates are subject to change based on the “fluidity” of the release slate and the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Colliers’ covered exhibitors now have more than 90% of their circuits open, and capacity limits have bumped up in some major markets including Los Angeles. But attendance levels“will not materially improve until tent-pole titles return to theatres, and studios clearly prefer the lower risk of releasing tent-pole titles when vaccines should be widely distributed in the U.S. and Europe." Colliers assumes “massive pent-up demand” for movies out of the home in Q4. Netflix scored an important exclusive licensing deal, "when few are available," said Frankel of the five-year deal the streaming service inked to have Sony films play on Netflix in the U.S. after their theatrical and home entertainment runs. Starting next year, Netflix gets streaming rights to all of Sony’s theatrical releases, plus first-look rights to Sony’s direct-to-streaming content, some of which Netflix agreed to produce. The deal is significant for Netflix, with many of its earlier exclusive licensing deals expired and content pulled back by Disney and WarnerMedia as they look to shore up their competing streaming services, Frankel said. Epix and MGM, meanwhile, opted for exclusive partnerships with Paramount+, and NBCUniversal is reportedly considering pulling its content from HBO Max and Netflix to shore up its Peacock service. NBCUniversal didn’t comment Monday.