Bogdan-Martin Considered Strong Contender for ITU Chief
Doreen Bogdan-Martin has a good chance of being elected secretary general of the ITU next year, experts said. The U.S. government signaled its support, including statements by Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In 2018, Bogdan-Martin was elected director of the ITU Telecom Development Bureau, after a campaign led by Donald Trump administration officials including then-FCC Chairman Ajit Pai and then-NTIA Administrator David Redl. She won on the first ballot, with support from the Americas and parts of Europe and Africa (see 1811010052).
Sign up for a free preview to unlock the rest of this article
Export Compliance Daily combines U.S. export control news, foreign border import regulation and policy developments into a single daily information service that reliably informs its trade professional readers about important current issues affecting their operations.
Other candidates are likely. Among them, based on our interviews last week, are Rashid Ismailov, deputy minister in the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation; Uruguay’s Mario Maniewicz, the head of the ITU's Radiocommunication Bureau; and ITU Deputy Secretary General Malcolm Johnson of the U.K. None commented now.
Bogdan-Martin has had “surprisingly” strong international support “because she’s so well known,” said Wiley’s David Gross, a longtime State Department official. “She’s really almost unique for an American as someone who is really identified as being a global citizen.” She has been at ITU for decades, lives in Europe and is married to a European, Gross said. She's “an extraordinarily strong candidate” to be the first woman secretary general, he said.
Redl agreed. “The past 14 months have reinforced the importance of connectivity,” Redl said. “As every aspect of our lives has moved online, it is more important than ever to have an experienced hand running the ITU,” he said: Bogdan-Martin is “the right person at the right time.” Bogdan-Martin has a “really good chance” because she’s an internal candidate and known entity at ITU, said Kristen Cordell, Center for Strategic and International Studies fellow.
The U.S. in a “really good position” to have an American hold the top spot at ITU, said the Milken Institute's Kevin Klowden. If Bogdan-Martin wins, the U.S. could have more impact and influence on new telecom standards, he said. It’s unlikely the Chinese will back a Russian candidate unless it clearly benefits them, Klowden said, but they will want to be involved because they have “positioned themselves incredibly well in terms of leadership positions in a number of international institutions.”
Long Shot?
Others see Bogdan-Martin as more of a long shot.
“The widely anticipated, eminently qualified next Sec-Gen is Malcolm Johnson,” said Netmagic Associates' Tony Rutkowski, who previously worked in the ITU secretariat. “There is essentially zero chance of a U.S., Russian or Chinese candidate.”
Bogdan-Martin is "extremely well liked [and] extremely skilled," but her gender could be a hurdle, along with geopolitical challenges, said EchoStar Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs Jennifer Manner. Bogdan-Martin was the first woman elected as an ITU official, Manner noted.
Bogdan-Martin “would be an excellent” choice, Pai emailed. “She has already demonstrated extraordinary leadership” directing the Telecom Development Bureau, and "I'm confident she would deliver similar results heading the overall organization.” Pai said he witnessed “her commitment to bringing the promise of communications technologies to people around the world and her determination to make the ITU a thoughtful, productive forum for fashioning policies for the digital age.”
“It’s likely that there will be several contenders,” Cordell said. “It is likely that China will continue to have an interest in heading the organization,” and it’s unlikely that nation will want to cede that space, she said. “They may look to down-ballot races like the deputy secretary general.”
Lockheed Martin Vice President-Technology Policy and Regulation Jennifer Warren said Bogdan-Martin is likely to get strong support from associations. There's already been such backing.
The Satellite Industry Association said it “strong[ly] supports” her candidacy. She's “the right fit to lead the organization as we face the worldwide challenge of bringing the benefits of mobile broadband to all and continue the transition to next-generation 5G networks,” CTIA said. The US ITU Association said Bogdan-Martin “has demonstrated her firm commitment to bridge the digital divide globally and collaborate with government and industry stakeholders from around the world to achieve this shared objective. An ardent advocate for gender equality, Director Bogdan-Martin would be the first woman to ever lead the ITU and first American in 50 years.”
Bogdan-Martin would face issues if she becomes chief, Klowden said. “The key things really are going to be dealing with the proliferation of satellites and new communications systems.” There have been serious concerns about other countries creating alternate internet systems, Klowden said, and Bogdan-Martin would have to ensure there are international standards to prevent fracturing.
ITU member states are expected to meet in September 2022 in Romania at a plenipotentiary conference to vote for the next secretary general. Gerald Gross was the last American to hold that job, 1960-65. Few Americans make their careers in international organizations, and Bogdan-Martin's candidacy sets an example for the U.S. to advance its interests in the future, Cordell said.
Because ITU sets global rules and standards for internet use, having an American leading the organization would have a significant impact on the developing world as it thinks through how to set up 5G systems, Cordell said. The U.S. could “help neutralize and standardize those processes” if Bogdan-Martin wins, because she comes from the development side of ITU, Cordell said: “She’s really prioritized engaging with the rest of the multilateral system.”