Amazon's NFL Deal Means Death of TV Bundle, LightShed Says
Amazon’s getting NFL long-term media rights distribution agreements is a “big win” for the tech giant, LightShed Partners wrote investors Friday. The long-term media distribution rights agreements with Amazon, CBS, ESPN/ABC, Fox and NBC cover 2023 through 2033, said the…
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NFL Thursday. Amazon will be the “exclusive home of Thursday Night Football across hundreds of compatible digital devices,” said the league. LightShed called it “the day the multichannel TV bundle died.” The trajectory is clear, the analysts said, “and the proverbial ‘floor’ on multichannel video subscribers is far lower" than the 40 million-50 million LightShed had predicted due to the NFL. That’s now closer to 20 million, “as more and more marquee sports content (especially NFL content) becomes available outside the legacy multichannel bundle,” analysts said. With games on Amazon Prime Video, ESPN+, Paramount+, Peacock and Fox digital platforms -- in addition to NFL Mobile and digital platforms -- NFL games “are now available in more places and on more devices than ever before,” said the league. It said it continues to be “the only sports league that delivers all of its games" on free, over-the-air TV, while noting increased flexibility to watch Sunday and Monday night games. The pact sets the stage for Fox, the only major network without a subscription VOD service, to launch a subscription tier on Tubi that includes NFL programming, LightShed said. Citing the acceleration of cord cutting and legacy media’s “urgency to build their own streaming services and connected TV advertising presence,” LightShed expects all media companies to employ their simulcast streaming rights “sooner than later.” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson agrees the distribution deals could accelerate cord cutting, he wrote investors Friday. He said the NFL is likely receiving about $10 billion a year, a sharp step up from the $5.6 billion now for the U.S. rights, with those higher NFL costs will likely mean higher affiliate fees being charged to distributors and local affiliates, leading to higher consumer prices. ACA Connects deems the distribution agreements bad news for cable subscribers, it said Friday. Broadcast networks and TV station owners will use NFL games and the threat of blackouts as leverage to drive up retransmission consent fees, it said, It applauded the reintroduction of the Modern Television Act by Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Calif., and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La. (see 2103110064). The bill would repeal parts of the 1992 Cable Act, including retransmission rules.