Retail Sales Likely to Slip 2% in 2020; Truck Driver Shortage an Issue: ABI
Amazon delivered two-thirds of its U.S. parcels in July, 274 million items, topping FedEx, said ABI analyst Susan Beardslee on a Wednesday webinar. Total retail revenue this year is forecast at $5.3 trillion, slipping 1.99%, with $70 billion from e-commerce,…
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$4.2 trillion from brick-and-mortar stores. E-commerce is more than 14% of U.S. retail sales, she said. ABI pegs Amazon 2020 e-commerce sales at $310 billion, followed by Walmart at $41 billion. Beardslee noted Walmart started a Prime competitor this year. The top 10 retailers generate an estimated 63% of all U.S. digital sales. A growing concern for e-commerce companies is lack of qualified commercial truck drivers as the market recovers from COVID-19. More than 88,000 drivers were furloughed in April and either found other employment or retired, said the analyst. She cited a high incidence of noncompliant drivers found in the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse database, who hadn’t started a return to duty process as of August. The combination is resulting in driver shortages approaching 2018 levels, she said. That’s expected to “impact the cost to shippers,” as shippers incur costs to acquire and maintain talent; that cost is likely to be passed on to consumers, she said. Eighty percent of shoppers expect to use the buy online, pick up in store fulfillment option this season; 50% of retailers plan to offer it, she said.