Senate Judiciary, Commerce Incumbents Face Tough Reelection Battles

Three Senate Commerce members are believed to be in tough races: Peters, Sullivan and Cory Gardner, R-Colo. Two others are likely to cruise to reelection: Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., and Ed Markey, D-Mass. One other member is retiring: Tom Udall, D-N.M.

Four Senate Judiciary members are seen as vulnerable, with three facing the toughest fights: Graham, Tillis and Joni Ernst, R-Iowa. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is also seen as being in a marginally competitive race that major election prognosticators rate as leaning his way. Three other committee members are believed safe in their reelection bids: Cory Booker, D-N.J.; Chris Coons, D-Del.; and Ben Sasse, R-Neb.

Rep. Tom O’Halleran, D-Ariz., is the only House Communications Subcommittee member believed to be in even a potentially competitive race. House Commerce Chairman Frank Pallone, D-N.J.; Communications Chairman Mike Doyle, D-Pa.; subcommittee ranking member Bob Latta, R-Ohio; and others are considered locks for reelection. Eight House Communications members are retiring, including Commerce ranking member Greg Walden, R-Ore. The departures of Walden and several other Republican Communications members raised questions about the effects on telecom policymaking in the next Congress (see 1911260048).

Three House Consumer Protection Subcommittee members are in potentially competitive races: O’Halleran; Richard Hudson, R-N.C.; and Commerce ex-Chairman Fred Upton, R-Mich. Walden and two other subpanel members are retiring, but 18 others are expected to win reelection. One House IP Subcommittee member is considered vulnerable: ranking member Steve Chabot, R-Ohio. House Antitrust Subcommittee member Lucy McBath, D-Ga., is potentially vulnerable. Former House IP Chairman Darrell Issa, R-Calif., is seeking a return to the chamber after retiring at the 2018 election. He’s running in a neighboring California district against Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Department of Labor official. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as likely favoring Issa.

Judiciary

Graham’s race against former South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison has tightened in recent months, with the Cook Political Report, the Economist and RealClearPolitics all rating it a tossup. Others rate Graham as slightly favored to win. Polls of the contest since Sept. 1 have ranged from Graham leading by 6 points to Harrison leading by 2 points.

It’s “shocking” that Graham is facing a competitive race, as his main previous threat was in primary elections against other Republicans, said College of Charleston political science professor Gibbs Knotts: The race “should” lean Republican under normal circumstances. That it’s even a question shows there has been a major shift in South Carolina politics, Knotts said. Graham has become a strong ally to President Donald Trump, which strengthened his position against other Republicans in primaries but put him at risk in the general election.

Graham is a central figure in Republican efforts to amend Communications Decency Act Section 230. He co-sponsored the Eliminating Abusive and Rampant Neglect of Interactive Technologies (Earn It) Act (S-3398) with Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. (see 2008050039), and he’s pushing the Online Content Policy Modernization Act (S-4632) with Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., and Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn. The Graham and Harrison campaigns didn’t comment.

Tillis is considered an underdog in his race against Democratic former State Sen. Cal Cunningham, a military veteran who most observers rate as favored despite being entangled in a sex scandal. Cunningham has led almost all polls since the beginning of September, except an East Carolina University survey released last week that showed Tillis leading by 1 point, 47%-46%. Other polls had Cunningham leading by 1-13 points.

The North Carolina race is one of the most important in the Democrats’ bid to win back the Senate because Tillis is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans, said North Carolina State University political science professor Steven Greene. Tillis led Senate IP’s effort to review and update the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (see 2009160074) and is vocal on trademark and copyright issues. The race feels like it’s for an open seat because Tillis hasn’t taken any incumbent advantage, Greene said. North Carolina is “very close to the presidential level” in Trump’s contest against Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and the Senate race should closely mirror that, said Cook Political Report Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor. The Tillis and Cunningham campaigns didn’t comment.

Ernst also faces headwinds in her race against Democratic businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, Greene said. Cook and most other prognosticators rate the contest a tossup, though some others view it as leaning in Greenfield’s favor. Most polls since the beginning of September ranged from a 48%-48% tie between Ernst and Greenfield to the Democrat leading by 12 points. A lone Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates poll released Sept. 10 showed Ernst leading by 5 points, 50%-45%.

Texas is becoming more competitive since Democratic ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s surprisingly competitive 2018 race against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, said Sean Theriault, a University of Texas associate professor. Cornyn isn’t as polarizing as Cruz, so there hasn’t been the same kind of support for Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, an Air Force veteran, Theriault said. Texas is more competitive than ever at the presidential level, but Republicans aren’t closely following Cornyn’s race, Taylor said. Cornyn is a key Republican in the surveillance policy (see 2005130056) and privacy debates.

Commerce

Sullivan’s race against Al Gross, an independent candidate running with the Democrats’ backing, has drawn increasing national interest in recent weeks. Gross’ campaign raised $9 million during the last three months. New super PAC North Star, the Lincoln Project and three other groups are also spending outside money to back Gross, an orthopedic surgeon. Sullivan’s campaign hasn’t released its latest quarterly fundraising figures, but Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund committed $5.3 million on his behalf. There have been few polls of the contest, but an Alaska Survey Research survey released Oct. 6 found Sullivan leading Gross 48%-44%. The same polling outfit in July found Sullivan leading by 13 points, 53%-40%. Most observers still tip the race in Sullivan’s favor.

“National Democrats and outside liberal Super PACs are flooding Alaska with millions of dollars in an attempt to buy this Senate seat,” said Sullivan campaign manager Matt Shuckerow in a statement. “Those in the lower 48” states “may have underestimated our race, but here in Alaska, folks want real change,” said a Gross campaign spokesperson.

National attention and recent events in Alaska made Sullivan’s prospects appear “much less good than they were” in September, said retired University of Alaska Fairbanks political scientist Jerry McBeath. Sullivan faced scrutiny in recent weeks, including criticism for not earlier denouncing a controversial mining project in the state and the incumbent’s perceived strong support for Trump’s agenda. Sullivan “has a very small edge” over Gross because he has the benefit of incumbency and “stellar” credentials that helped him prevail in 2014 against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (see 1411120003), but Gross is “an entirely different kind of competitor,” McBeath said.

Sullivan’s Senate Commerce work remains a “very useful” asset in his reelection bid, mainly involving NOAA and fisheries issues important to Alaska’s economy, McBeath said. Sullivan has been a fierce critic of the FCC’s approach to the USF Rural Health Care Program, based on how it affects Alaska, citing it as his reason for temporarily blocking Senate confirmation of Commissioner Brendan Carr in 2018 (see 1809120056). He alluded to the item as a potential concern ahead of Senate Commerce consideration of FCC nominee Nathan Simington (see 2009280038). Sullivan has also been active on other telehealth, USF and privacy issues (see 2005220051).

Gardner faces long odds of prevailing in his reelection bid against Democratic former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. A series of polls since the beginning of September all showed Gardner trailing Hickenlooper by a range of 2-10 points. All major prognosticators rate the race as at least tilting in Hickenlooper’s favor, with some saying a turnover is likely.

“This was always going to be a close fight until the end,” said Gardner campaign manager Casey Contres in a statement. “We are staring down the barrel of this horrible” COVID-19 “crisis that has been made worse by [Trump’s] negligence and enabled by” Gardner, a Hickenlooper spokesperson said.

Gardner “came into this race at a real disadvantage,” said University of Denver Center on American Politics Director Seth Masket. Colorado “is not a great state to be a Republican candidate,” especially given the overall dynamics of the 2020 presidential contest. Gardner won in 2014 by “a pretty narrow” margin over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall “in a pretty strongly Republican year, and the state has moved to the left since then,” Masket said. Gardner will “certainly turn out the Republican vote, but that’s really not enough to win reelection here right now.”

Gardner has made “little specific reference to” his Senate Commerce work in campaign literature or speeches but will likely refer to it in the context “of his work on behalf of Colorado’s business community,” Masket said. “He’s tried to focus on work he’s done for” Colorado’s interests, and that may intertwine with his committee activity, but “the news cycle has a way of coming back to national politics, which is weaker ground for him because it reminds voters of his ties” to the national GOP.

Gardner has been active on a range of telecom issues, including spectrum. He led filing of the Advancing Innovation and Reinvigorating Widespread Access to Viable Electromagnetic Spectrum (Airwaves) Act (S-2223), which aims to identify spectrum for unlicensed use and free up midband spectrum (see 1907240033). He also led the Senate version of the National Suicide Hotline Designation Act (HR-4194/S-2661), which awaits Trump’s signature (see 2009240063).

Peters faces a strong challenge from Republican businessman and veteran John James, who was also the GOP’s 2018 nominee against Senate Agriculture Committee ranking member Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich. Peters has led in all polls since Sept. 1, though a Siena College/New York Times survey released Monday showed the incumbent ahead by 1 point, within the margin of error. Most observers rate the contest as still leaning in Peters’ favor, but RealClearPolitics says it’s a tossup.

The Michigan Senate contest is “surprisingly closer” than the presidential race for the state’s electoral votes, in which Biden is the favorite, said Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research Director Matt Grossmann. Peters “remains relatively less well known than other incumbents,” while James “seems to have been able to somewhat differentiate himself from” Trump. Michigan voters still don’t “have very strong opinions about” Peters after his first Senate term, Grossmann said.

Peters’ Senate Commerce work hasn’t factored into the race, which has turned more on local issues like the state of Michigan’s cherry industry and broader national issues like the pandemic, Grossmann said. “He hasn’t necessarily tried to leverage” any specific committee activity, though it’s a tangential factor because he has “been touting” his legislative effectiveness during the campaign. Peters has been active on telehealth and autonomous vehicle legislation (see 2001100042), including as the lead Democratic co-sponsor of the American Vision for Safer Transportation Through Advancement of Revolutionary Technologies (AV Start) Act (S-1885). Peters is also Senate Homeland Security Committee ranking member and in that role pushed for increased funding to help U.S. communications providers remove Chinese equipment determined to threaten national security (see 2008120030).

Peters’ campaign is confident Michigan voters will “reject [James] and his out-of-touch agenda,” a spokesperson said. James’ record “in battle and in business and lifelong ethic of service before self stands in stark contrast” to Peters’ tenure in Congress, a spokesperson said.