COVID-19 Lockdowns Shortened Flu Season by 4 Weeks: Researcher
Research shows with at least 60% “confidence” that social distancing works in curbing the spread of COVID-19, Elder Research CEO Gerhard Pilcher told a Northern Virginia Technology Council webinar Wednesday. Elder studied U.S. seasonal flu statistics for the past decade…
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as a “control,” finding that cases in the last four weeks of the 2020 flu season declined much more rapidly than in the comparable periods of previous years. The reduction in the flu coincided with COVID-19 stay-at-home mandates that began mid-March in much of the U.S., said Pilcher. “It’s a strong indication that the social distancing and lockdowns were having an impact, just looking at flu data,” he said. There also was a “pretty precipitous drop” in 2020 flu hospitalizations “as we implemented some of the travel restrictions and social distancing,” he said. Pilcher estimates the COVID-19 lockdowns shortened the 2020 flu season by four weeks. Data analytics suggest actual COVID-19 cases are being undercounted by a factor of 15 to 20, said Pilcher. NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital had 215 childbirths between March 22 and April 14 and decided to test all 215 mothers for the coronavirus, he said. Of the 33 who tested positive -- a 15.3% infection rate -- 29 were “completely asymptomatic,” he said. “That was 7.25 asymptomatic cases for every symptomatic case. This was a pretty big number in a pretty controlled environment.”