Coronavirus Disruptions Spark IDC to Downgrade Its Global 2020 PC Forecast
Business disruptions from the coronavirus outbreak prompted IDC to downgrade its 2020 forecast on shipments of personal computing devices, including desktops, notebooks, workstations and tablets. It’s now projecting global shipments will decline 9% this year to 374.2 million, it said…
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Thursday. IDC’s Nov. 26 forecast, when the now-suspended List 4B tariffs were on the table and coronavirus wasn't in the picture, pegged a 7% fall. IDC is standing by its forecast that long-term growth will be “slightly positive,” rising at a 0.2% five-year compound annual growth rate to 377.2 million units in 2024. The coronavirus spread is “hampering supply and leading to reduced demand,” it said. The researcher forecasts the 8.2% Q1 decline will accelerate to a 12.7% decrease in Q2 “as the existing inventory of components and finished goods from the first quarter will have been depleted by" Q2. In 2020's second half, “growth rates are expected to improve though the market will remain in decline,” the firm said. "We have already forgone nearly a month of production given the two-week extension to the Lunar New Year break,” said IDC. “We expect the road to recovery for China's supply chain to be long with a slow trickle of labor back to factories in impacted provinces until May when the weather improves. Many critical components such as panels, touch sensors, and printed circuit boards come out of these impacted regions.”