Coronavirus Disruption on US Retail Channel 'Less Severe Than Expected,' NRF Says
National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay downplayed the expected impact of the coronavirus epidemic on U.S. retailers, speaking on a Feb. 26 call with media about the group's 2020 forecast. NRF forecast that 2020 retail sales will grow by 3.5%-4.1% to more than $3.9 trillion, “despite uncertainty from the lingering trade war, coronavirus and the presidential election.” Citing conversations with retail executives, Shay said news about the retail supply chain is “generally encouraging,” with reports that some China plants are coming back on line and employees are returning to work, after closures due to the coronavirus outbreak. Warning the virus' impact needs to be taken seriously, Shay also said the disruption appears “less severe than originally expected.”
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Efficiencies in the supply chain put in place over the past couple of years helped minimize effects of the coronavirus for retailers, Shay said. Those efficiencies were hastened by “the disruption and uncertainty around trade policies in the U.S.,” including Section 301 tariffs on goods produced in China. “Somewhat counterintuitively, that emphasis has accelerated diversification away from the market in China when possible,” he said.