EMarketer Ups Projections for Holidays, With First Trillion-Dollar Sales Forecast
Research firm eMarketer ratcheted up its holiday sales forecast Tuesday, eyeing the first $1 trillion-plus season benefiting from the maximum number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Citing “low unemployment, strong income growth and high consumer confidence,” analyst Andrew Lipsman…
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predicted 5.8 percent retail sales growth for the season, the highest rate since 2011. Noting “some economic headwinds,” Lipsman said effects will be muted until after the holidays as retailers, banking off built-up inventories of China-produced goods affected by tariffs, won’t pass on notable price increases to consumers until next year. Lipsman raised the forecast for brick-and-mortar retailers, which he now projects will have a 4.4 percent sales increase to $878.38 billion vs. the Q3 forecast of $863 billion. Although some physical store retailers shut storefronts this year, others are capitalizing on the “strong consumer economy” and will represent 87.7 percent of holiday sales, Lipsman said. Retailers are reeling in customers with remodeled stores, “streamlined checkout” and buy-online-pick-up-in-store options, he said. E-commerce, meanwhile, will continue to show the fastest growth among retailers, jumping 16.6 percent to $123.7 billion, said analyst Cindy Liu. She noted the emerging battle for market share among e-tailers using free and fast holiday shipping offers to compete against Amazon (see 1811050040). Mobile shopping from smartphones and tablets will jump 44 percent, reaching 5.4 percent of holiday sales, said Liu.