Comcast/Fox Could Face Less Government Pushback Than Disney, New Street Says
Comcast/Fox likely has an easier route to antitrust approval than Disney/Fox, New Street Research said in a note to investors Tuesday. The analysts said both potential deals raise horizontal issues because Comcast and Disney have programming assets, but the Disney…
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deal is potentially riskier due to the theatrical release market. They said there could be a Clayton Act problem with the Murdoch family having control of Fox's broadcast assets while also significant interest in or even a board seat on an entity that controls ABC. That Disney isn't an ISP or MVPD makes Disney/Fox less a vertical issue, but DOJ generally doesn't challenge vertical deals anyway, and Comcast/Fox likely doesn't raise big vertical red flags since Comcast doesn't have a national footprint, wrote the analysts. Neither deal seemingly will require FCC approval, they said, noting Disney/Fox could face smoother sailing politically due to Trump administration antipathy to Comcast/NBCUniversal. New Street said a DOJ loss in its bid to block AT&T's buy of Time Warner helps both Disney and Comcast, but Comcast especially since DOJ will be particularly timid about opposing similar vertical deals, while a Justice win would hurt Comcast more because the agency might see it as a judicial mandate to bring more such suits. Others see Comcast/Fox having a likely easier time getting government approval (see 1805240034).