AV Seen Gaining Regulatory OKs as Market Expands
Following expected regulatory approvals of autonomous vehicle in the late 2020s, costs will fall and consumer acceptance will gain, Cowen Research reported Monday. Shifting from individually owned cars to a network of self-driving vehicles, called “intelligent mobility,” means ride hailing,…
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car sharing and networks of connected autonomous vehicles are poised for increased adoption, it said. Cowen sees a consumer-driven transition from owning cars to one of access to transportation services with the transportation-as-a-service market becoming five to six times the size of the automobile market. “Every product is a service waiting to happen,” said Cowen. Today’s $1.50-per-mile cost for Uber and Lyft -- vs. about $0.80 for personally owned vehicles -- can be cut 40-50 percent for full AV, it said. Cowen calculated an $11 trillion market, five to six times larger than the automobile market. Juniper Research Monday meanwhile said the number of ride-hailing drivers will increase nearly 15 percent this year, rising from 4.3 million in 2017 to 8.6 million by 2022. Platform providers can expect revenue to almost double in the period to $19 billion, the industry researcher said. Surge pricing could account for 30 percent of revenue by 2022, said the study, and overuse could cause "cries of extortion."