Trump, VP-Elect Differences on Trade Not Wide, Top Pence Staffer Says
There isn't as much of a gap between President-elect Donald Trump’s and Vice President-elect Mike Pence’s trade stances as many expected, said Marty Obst, Pence’s inaugural director, during a Barnes & Thornburg event Nov. 30. People in the Indiana governor’s circle thought the two would be “miles apart” on trade because of Pence’s free trade views, he said. But during a campaign call between the leaders' allies exploring whether Pence would be a suitable running mate, Trump told Pence’s colleagues that he’s not against free trade, but he’s more in favor of bilateral, as opposed to multilateral, deals, which Pence jumped on board with. According to Obst, Trump said, “I just want bilateral deals that make sense for us, because we’ve made some bad deals. So I just want to re-examine all of them.” Trump provided “interesting insights” into how to fix the U.S. trade imbalance, and he and Pence will work to do that in an “earnest way,” while benefiting U.S. businesses, Obst added.
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Trump has promised to make four “groundbreaking” changes to U.S. trade policy -- pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on his first day in office, seek to renegotiate NAFTA or otherwise pull out, challenge unfair Chinese trade practices, and implement tougher policies regarding commerce with Cuba and Iran, David Spooner, of Barnes & Thornburg, said during the event. Analysts have pondered whether Trump’s preference for bilateral deals and his stated intent to renegotiate NAFTA could indicate a desire to renegotiate the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) as well, Spooner said. But Trump’s commerce secretary nominee, billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, was very active in CAFTA-DR negotiations, Spooner noted.
Taking into account the prospective trade policy changes, “should companies be concerned? Should companies follow things closely? Of course,” Spooner said. “The president-elect himself has said that he’ll make what would amount to extremely big changes in U.S. trade policy, and shake things up.” But Spooner also added that across-the-board tariffs will not be imposed on China, because the president doesn’t have the necessary executive authority. “Although we may see a ‘get tough’ policy on China, we won’t see across-the-board tariffs imposed,” he said.
While several people in the trade community might not have wanted to admit it, TPP wasn’t going to pass Congress, regardless of election results, as indicated by free trade supporters House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. They were instrumental in helping President Barack Obama get Trade Promotion Authority, and expressed doubts over the past year that Congress would pass TPP implementation legislation by the end of 2016. Moreover, during the last negotiating round, the Obama administration made concessions on rice, tobacco, automobiles, biologics and other products, Spooner said. “You don’t have to be a full-time lobbyist to guess how many votes in Congress that tobacco, rice, dairy, auto industries and pharmaceutical industries influence,” he said.