Analysts See Clinton Policy Following in Obama's Steps, With Some Evolution
Expect telecom policy continuity with some wrinkles if Democrat Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, said New Street Research analysts in a Sunday note. A Clinton administration would resemble a "third Obama term" in communications policy, but the agenda could evolve…
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as it did in President Barack Obama's second term, when the FCC carried out broadband reclassification under Title II of the Communications Act, said the analysts. They said the Obama administration's sensitivities eased some after facing a deep recession at the outset. "It is difficult to exaggerate the abyss Obama's economic advisers peered into during the 2008 transition and continuing well into 2010," creating much concern about the investment impact of decisions, they said. But the bigger factor, they said, was the change from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski to Tom Wheeler, who has been more activist, in line with Democratic preferences, on many issues beyond Title II, including municipal broadband, USF changes, set-top boxes, special access, privacy, the IP transition, inmate calling rates and general enforcement. New Street said political forces favor a new FCC chairman in the "Wheeler mold," including Wheeler's popularity with most Democrats and the strong primary challenge of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., which has pushed Clinton toward "a more activist approach." Few Clinton advisers are likely to argue in favor of Genachowski's approach over Wheeler's, though there is some unpredictability, since it's unknown whom Clinton would nominate as FCC chairman and which party will control the Senate confirmation process, they said. "Bottom Line: Early Continuity But Then Circumstances Start to Change Outcomes," New Street concluded. Regardless of "Clinton's choice, we do not see any Democratic Chair stepping away from the core Title II choice, unless a court totally overturns that 2015 decision. Of course, there are still a number of related decisions, such as how to evaluate different zero-rating approaches and how to respond to court decisions chipping away at FCC authority, that will give a new Chair a chance to put meaning to the decision, rather than reversing it wholesale. It’s also likely the first Clinton Chair will continue a number of other Wheeler initiatives, such as supporting municipal broadband efforts, opening up the set-top box market, reforming special access, and imposing a new privacy framework on ISPs." New Street had suggested the communications policy of GOP front-runner Donald Trump would fall within the GOP "Republican norm" (see 1603020020). Former FCC official Blair Levin consults with New Street on telecom policy notes.