2016 Campaigning Expected To Distract Senate Commerce

“A Senate campaign is like creating a small business,” said former Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., who served on the Commerce Committee. Dorgan, now a lobbyist for Arent Fox, told us that the comparison is apt due to the time and money involved and given the short life of the campaign itself: “It does consume a lot of time for the candidate. Time is a precious commodity for anyone serving in the Senate.”

Senate challengers have begun emerging, with particular vulnerabilities expected for two Republican members. Sens. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., will face a tough challenge in reclaiming their seats next year, political observers widely agree, suggesting those seats are toss-ups.

Earlier this month, New Hampshire Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan announced she would challenge Ayotte for her Senate seat. Past polling showed this would be a close match. Ayotte is a first-term senator who has prioritized what she considers inequities in the FCC USF, targeting the fund through legislation to, as she argues, help create more appropriate benefits relative to what states pay in. Russ Feingold, a Democratic former senator, is fighting to take down Johnson, who is wrapping up his own first term in the Senate representing Wisconsin. Poll results released Sept. 30 by Marquette Law School showed Feingold with support from 50 percent of Wisconsin registered voters and Johnson 36 percent. Johnson chairs the Homeland Security Committee in addition to belonging to Commerce and has spent this year exercising intense scrutiny of the FCC, soliciting documents from the agency about how the White House influenced its net neutrality order.

“Wisconsin, I think we have that in the bag,” said Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., last week during a discussion hosted by The Washington Post. “I say that seriously … Of course Gov. Hassan has announced in New Hampshire; that looks really good there.” Reid suspects Democrats have “really good” prospects for winning back the Senate from GOP control in November 2016, naming several other races he sees as promising.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who led the charge on reallocation of spectrum and testing of the 5.9 GHz band with legislation this Congress and last, will be gone from the halls of the Senate next year, one way or another. He is one of the two committee members vying for the GOP presidential nomination, and he isn't running for re-election to his Senate seat up in 2016. The other committee member running for president is Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a fierce net neutrality critic who touted his opposition when launching his campaign website. But Cruz’s Senate term isn't up until 2018.

Of the other five committee members whose seats are up, most face less intense re-election bids, according to estimates so far. Chairman John Thune, R-S.D., who has more than $11 million on hand, will campaign for a third Senate term, although no opponents have yet declared. Thune officially signed off on his candidacy for 2016 in a Sept. 30 filing posted by the Federal Election Commission this month. In 2010, South Dakota Democrats didn't nominate a challenger against Thune, citing his popularity within the state. The committee’s two Democrats who are up are Sens. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, and Brian Schatz of Hawaii, ranking member of the Communications Subcommittee, but both their states are expected to safely vote for the Democratic incumbents. Sens. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., and Roy Blunt, R-Mo., are also generally safe bets, although not without challenges -- Moran has dealt with speculation of a GOP primary opponent emerging, and Blunt is up against up Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander in what may be a tightening race. Kander raised $825,000 in a recent three-month span, although Blunt, who has allied with broadcasters in recent policy battles, has more than $4 million on hand. Thune and Blunt are both members of GOP leadership. “We have a very good shot in Missouri,” Reid said.

“I don’t think it’s a distraction so much as it is an asset,” Dorgan considered of a Commerce chair running for re-election, calling the committee “an important element” in what committee leaders can discuss with their constituents. “It generally is an asset, at times a significant one.” The chair decides “an agenda that more suits their interests,” at times unilaterally and at times in coordination with the minority, with the one big consequence of an election year potentially being a tendency to “stay away from the big controversial issues if possible,” Dorgan remarked. But telecom issues “have a long runway to them” on Capitol Hill, said Dorgan, recalling how the battles surrounding satellite-TV reauthorization played out last year. Dorgan lobbied for TiVo during the final months leading up to a reauthorization bill’s passage into law. Due to the six-year nature of Senate terms, senators have the first four or five years to make an impression on their colleagues, leaving fewer surprises in the months leading up to re-election contests, he added, doubting the election year would change the dynamics of bipartisan negotiation: “Most people that reach that status know the issues and what’s possible.” But any Senate bid amounts to "a burden on time," Dorgan conceded.

Moving legislation is already challenging in off years in the current political environment and will be even harder in this next year fraught with re-election bids, said a former Republican Senate staffer. Committee members won't want to touch anything controversial and will face heavy lobbying with elections looming, he said. The former staffer predicts none of the major telecom initiatives discussed by the committee will get off the ground next year. Thune, despite a war chest of funds and popularity in the party, is likely still going to be distracted, as much by the possibility of primary challengers from his own party as any Democratic challenger, the ex-staffer predicted, pointing out that attention to possible primary challengers would be occurring during the same period of time early next year that Thune would want to move legislation.

Nine Commerce Committee members’ seats will be up for re-election in 2018, including that of ranking member Bill Nelson, D-Fla. Five Democrats’ and four Republicans’ terms will end. Nelson already has expressed interest in running in 2018.

Senate Commerce has dialed back parts of its agenda this year, and Thune has told us that big-ticket election year of 2016 will make doing anything harder. At the year’s start, Thune spoke of ambitious telecom initiatives including a rewrite of the Telecom Act and the revival of his controversial video proposal Local Choice. As months passed, Thune acknowledged that moving either would be difficult. His attempt to negotiate a bipartisan FCC reauthorization bill has faced roadblocks in recent months (see 1510130039), and although he and Nelson continue negotiating on net neutrality legislation, no deal has emerged. The latest initiative Thune has talked up is a spectrum legislative package, which he hopes could come together as soon as year’s end.