US Trade Agenda Faces Significant Obstacles in 2014, Says NFTC President Reinsch
The year 2014 is shaping up to reflect the previous year’s trade agenda inaction, said National Foreign Trade Council President Bill Reinsch during a Pacific Northwest Waterways Association event. The agenda remains the same, with the Obama Administration pushing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, Trade in Services Agreement and Trade Adjustment Assistance, along with Information Technology Agreement expansion and other multilateral pacts.
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“These are big deals in every sense of the word, and they reflect both the rapid changes occurring in the trading system and the evolution in countries’ strategies for dealing with multilateral gridlock,” said Reinsch. “TPP is at the danger point of all negotiations -- once the issues are narrowed to a handful of politically difficult ones, will political will evaporate? Last year I was optimistic about an early conclusion, but today I am not so sure. It is ironic that despite all the speeches about a 21st century agreement, new issues, etc., the big fights are over Australian sugar, New Zealand dairy products, Vietnamese apparel, and, increasingly, Japanese rice and other agricultural products -- the same things we've been arguing about for 50 years.”
The Japanese reluctance to make tariff concessions on five key agricultural products may dissuade other participant nations from making similar concessions, essentially derailing the pact’s lofty ambitions, said Reinsch. That could lead to the other 11 participants removing Japan from the agreement, he added. The sealing of a TPP deal would provide the most likely impetus for Congress to vote on Trade Promotion Authority, said Reinsch, but lawmakers are reluctant to adopt the legislation during campaign season. “At this point, I think a vote after the November elections is most likely, and then only if TPP demands it. In other words, the fast-track bill is not on a fast track,” said Reinsch.