Lower-Than-Expected LPFM Application Total Not a Surprise to Some Experts
The more than 2,800 low-power FM applications submitted to the FCC during the LPFM window didn’t come as a surprise to some advocates for the service, they said in interviews Friday. There were 2,819 applications for new stations, according to the FCC FM Query database (http://bit.ly/IkoiiY). The intensive application and lack of resources to prepare applications and to conduct more outreach are some factors that likely resulted in fewer than 3,000 applications, some advocates said. The number of applications filed is significantly lower than some earlier projections made by other advocates.
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Expecting 10,000 applications was “overoptimistic,” said Tracy Rosenberg, Media Alliance executive director. Rosenberg said she expected about 3,000 applications. A more dedicated outreach effort from nonprofit organizations and community groups would have resulted in many more applications, she said. “Going into this, there wasn’t a clear sense of how much outreach and support was going to be possible out of the non-for-profit and community media community,” Rosenberg said. To do the necessary outreach requires resources and those resources weren’t entirely there, she said. “The government shutdown played a role.” The shutdown delayed the auction, which was extended by about a half-day because the FCC Consolidated Database System (CDBS) had technical problems.
The total isn’t terribly low, said Sanjay Jolly, policy director for Prometheus Radio Project. There are a lot of applications, he said. With 15,000 full-power FM stations, the LPFM applications represent 20 percent of the total number of existing FM stations, he said. The projected numbers, which ranged from 5,000 to 10,000, were based on talking to people, he said. “The guesses were speculative."
There were a lot of bulk filings in a 2000 LPFM application window, where a single group filed applications on behalf of several other groups, Jolly said. In the latest window, “it doesn’t appear that there was any scheme for bulk filings,” he said. Some groups opened applications, but didn’t complete them, Jolly said. “There were far more CDBS accounts opened and Form 318s opened than were submitted.” There were plenty of groups that either were intimidated by the engineering or didn’t get their work done on time, he added.
In the weeks before the government shutdown, the LPFM Store expected about 5,000 applications to be filed, said CEO Leo Ashcraft. An organization that helps new LPFM licensees build and sustain stations, the LPFM Store had a surge of phone calls from customers calling in response to its advertising of the filing window, Ashcraft said. “Then after the government shutdown, the bottom fell out of it,” he said. “People were worried about other things closer to home than opening a radio station.” Many people are new to broadcasting, “so they don’t understand that you just can’t apply for these things at any time,” he added.
Regarding outreach, “I think we missed the boat, especially in the southern states,” Ashcraft said. The most interest came from the larger metropolitan areas in California, Florida, New York and New Jersey, he said. “We were getting very little calls from the southern states,” he said. “I don’t know if that was an outreach problem or if there just wasn’t an interest."
Some potential applicants shied away from applying once they tried tackling the Form 318 application, Rosenberg said. “More than 10,000 were interested in doing it, but it was always my assumption when it came down to brass tacks, that many would come to the conclusion that from a capacity challenge it was going to be hard to keep a radio station going and to get it on the air."
John Broomall expected the same amount of applications as in the 2000 LPFM window, which was about 3,258, said the senior consultant for Canton, Ga.-based Christian Community Broadcasters. There could be a benefit to having fewer applications, he said. “The fewer applications may result in more stations getting on the air and getting on the air faster because the FCC settlement process takes years.” With more applications, “there will be more battles,” he said, referring to the applications vying for the same frequencies in the same areas.
"You can make an argument that it’s good that people didn’t go ahead with applications if they didn’t feel like they could carry the process all the way through,” said Rosenberg. “Or you can say that it’s a missed opportunity and that many of these groups might have done amazing work if they'd had a bit more support."
The FCC had extended the window due to the delay caused by last month’s government shutdown (CD Oct 22 p2). The window was extended a second time this month after the CDBS crashed (CD Nov 18 p23). Those extensions were beneficial, Broomall said. “But there are always people that simply don’t hear about something.”