Report Sees Lower-Than-Expected Growth for Ports
Research and Markets lowered "expectations for external trade growth in 2012, with real imports now expected to rise by 3.8% (from 5.0%) and exports by 3.5% (from 5.0%)," it said in a new report: "These factors combine to put considerable negative pressure on port throughput volumes."
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Specific findings include:
- Port of Los Angeles it forecast 4.7% year-on-year growth in total tonnage in 2012, to reach 67mn tonnes.
- For the east coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3.88% y-o-y in 2012, to reach 145mn tonnes.
- It predicts y-o-y growth of 3.6% in air freight volume, to reach 72bn tonnes-km in 2012.
- It believes the proposed dredging works at the port of Charleston are closer to being realized, due to state level funding and federal funding allocated in the 2013 Fiscal Year Civil Works Budget. But it said other sources of funding will have to be found to finance "this expensive and lengthy project."
- It believes the success of the North American Free Trade Agreement cross-border trucking pilot program is at risk if more Mexican companies fail to sign up to participate. Concerned about low take-up, the US Department of Transport (DOT) is encouraging more Mexican companies to get involved, saying their enrollment is critical to the success of the three-year project. BMI cautions, however, that with Mexican truckers complaining of harsh conditions imposed on them by the project, there is unlikely to be a rush to participate over the short term.