IHS Revises Chip Revenue Forecasts After Prices Held Steady Post-Quake
Semiconductor shortages related to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami will push 2011 world semiconductor revenue higher than originally forecast, IHS iSuppli said. In a report released Tuesday, the firm raised its projection to 7 percent from the 5.8 percent it offered in February. Revenue will reach $325.2 billion, rather than $320.1 billion, as shortages lead to higher prices for key DRAM devices, IHS said. The prices had been expected to drop 10.6 percent for the year. DRAM revenue is now predicted to decline 4 percent, IHS said.
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The quake will reduce global DRAM shipments 1.1 percent in March and April, said Mike Howard, IHS DRAM and memory analyst, who said March is typically a weak sales month. He called the impact of steady prices for March “dramatic” and said it indicates a major boost for DRAM memory for the year. For April, DRAM prices are now expected to be flat to up 2 percent, compared with a previously forecast 3-4 percent drop, IHS said. Although neither of Japan’s DRAM fabs was damaged in the quake, a chip assembly plant in Akita owned by Elpida Memory suffered a disruption, which led to a reduction in shipments, Howard said. Rising price pressure is expected to ease for DRAM devices in the year’s second half, he said.
Wafer shortages in Japan, which accounts for 60 percent of global supply, could also affect DRAM pricing later this year if shortages persist. Top wafer supplier Shin-Etsu continues to suffer production outages for its 300mm wafer manufacturing plants. The company’s Kamisu and Nishigo plants -- which together account for about 20 percent of global wafer production -- are down, IHS said. When the number of wafers in the manufacturing supply chain falls to less than 50 percent of typical levels, DRAM output will be affected, Howard said. “This could happen starting in October, resulting in further price increases for DRAM,” he said.