Emerging Markets Fueling Shift to Smaller LCD Substrates, DisplaySearch Conference Told
SAN DIEGO -- Changes in competition from technology advances, developing markets and maturing of existing markets are changing the landscape of the global flat-panel display industry, speakers at DisplaySearch’s Flat-Panel Display Conference said Tuesday. Future growth will shift to emerging markets “with different needs and characteristics,” said Paul Semenza, senior vice president of analyst services for DisplaySearch, leading to challenges for the supply chain.
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With the U.S., Western Europe and Japanese markets all “fairly saturated in TV,” Semenza said, “all growth going forward will be in emerging markets.” While the potential for growth in emerging markets is “tremendous,” it will take a different shape from the large-screen model that drove the only recent growth area of TVs -- the 40-inch and larger segment that served as the “promised land” for TVs in recent years, he said. Looking ahead, the larger segment “doesn’t really grow,” he said. In emerging markets, the high rate of first TV acquisition, limited household income and smaller living spaces is expected to drive sales in the 30-39-inch segment instead of larger screen sizes, he said.
That’s creating a shift at the fabrication level where in the past panel companies have competed to produce larger and larger panels “to get to the market before anyone else” in what he called “a rapid switch from one substrate size to the next.” Going forward, Semenza said, there will be consolidation in that market as China brings its own Gen 8 and higher plants online to serve the domestic market. Mostly, DisplaySearch sees the trend to larger generation plants “going backward” as investment shifts to Gen 7 and Gen 5.5 plants to produce 10- and 5.5-inch displays used in the growing tablet and smartphone markets. “It’s no longer the company that gets to the newest fab generation that will have the leadership,” he said. “There’s a shift of competition to other aspects.”
The iPad and iPhone are leading the shift in trends, Semenza said. As part of the shift in display growth from large-area panels to small- and medium-size panels, pixel density will become more important. PC display pixel densities are fixed at 150 per inch, he said, because viewing distance is largely fixed by the user’s proximity to the screen. But smartphones “are rapidly moving to higher pixel densities in the 300-pixel-per-inch segment because of closer viewing and increased functionality including video. “The iPhone is pulling a lot of other cell and display companies toward higher resolutions,” he said.
Lisa Ferrero, general manager of Corning Display Technologies, offered a more optimistic look at LCD TV growth potential than DisplaySearch’s modest outlook for the U.S., Europe and Japan. According to Corning market studies, a “faster replacement market” will spur LCD TV upgrade sales as consumers migrate to thinner and lighter, connected and 3D TVs. Ferrero cited growth in emerging markets as well, with consumers shifting from CRTs to LCD TVs and then LCD to LCD replacement business worldwide. In the current market, half of all LCD TV owners replace their TV every six years compared with nine years for CRT owners, she said, with demand driven by technology and features rather than product obsolescence.
For the future, Corning is studying flexible substrates that are “as thin as 50 microns” which will enable new applications, Ferrero said. In addition to conventional use in a display, she said, the substrates can be rolled out from a spool, offer cost reductions and can be applied to other uses including e-paper and LED lighting.