3D TV Forecasts Inch Ahead in Latest DisplaySearch TV Design and Features Report
DisplaySearch nudged its 2010 projections for 3D TV sales upward for the North American market from 1.6 million to 2.2 million, with overall market penetration of 37 percent predicted by 2014, according to the latest Quarterly TV Design and Features Report. Paul Gray, director of TV electronics research for DisplaySearch, told Consumer Electronics Daily that the new forecast reflects an extension of 3D product ranges from TV set makers. “Clearly, few sets would be sold at $2,500 price points,” he said. “For a surge in volume, prices will have to drop sharply. We are now expecting basic-level plasma sets with 3D late this year.” At the start of the year only three set makers were offering 3D, and most countries outside of the U.S. and Japan had no 3D plans for pay TV content, he said: “The change over the year is that these waverers have decided to launch some 3D products.”
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Ubiquitous 3D “is still a ways off,” Gray said, saying even gaming software companies are talking more about 2012 than fall 2010 for product launches. “The challenges facing broadcasters and pay-TV providers to deliver 3D, on top of the cost issues of programming, means that 3D will remain a treat for a long time to come,” he said. Hollywood movies “exist in a totally different world in terms of cost per hour” compared with most TV content, he said.
According to DisplaySearch projections, 3.4 million 3D TVs will be sold worldwide this year, representing a 5 percent market share, and the figure will grow to 42.9 million in 2014. The report notes that the consumer electronics industry is running ahead of content, which is currently limited to a few Blu-ray movies and a limited sports programming on cable and satellite TV. “The inhibitor is content availability,” Gray said. “Mass consumers will not migrate to 3D based solely on a couple of hours of sports coverage per week or a handful of Blu-Ray discs.” Further affecting growth potential is that blockbuster 3D movies such as Avatar won’t be available on Blu-ray in 2010.
On the hardwire side, the report mentioned other “significant obstacles for 3D implementation in the home,” including consumers’ perceptions of 3D glasses, which remain unresolved. The issues go beyond comfort. “Glasses interact with energy-saving fluorescent lights, giving flicker,” Gray told us, adding that in Australia and many countries in Europe, conventional light bulbs will be banned from sale by 2012. In many countries in Asia, fluorescent lighting is the norm, he said, because of consumer preference. Another limiting factor is the low penetration of Blu-ray players outside of the U.S. and Japan, Gray said, noting that Blu-ray was launched in Europe the year following its U.S. debut. Finally, he said, 3D gaming is nascent. “Gaming will be a big driver long term,” Gray said, but not in the near future. “Xbox has no immediate 3D launch plans,” he noted.
From the energy perspective, Gray said, the loss in light output from 3D displays could be an issue in 3D’s growth, too. “The loss in light output from 3D has made display efficiency a key attention point again,” he said, citing the switching nature of 3D frame sequential displays, plus light loss in 3D glasses, which have been recognized in product tests. “3D TVs currently look dim and often have to be watched in a dimly lit room,” he said. Some consumers may not even get that far if 3D TVs can’t display a bright picture on the retail floor where brightness levels are ratcheted up to grab customers’ attention. And any boost in brightness would require a parallel bump in power output. “Energy regulations will limit the ability of set makers to ‘gas-guzzle’ their way out of the problem,” Gray said, saying more light output demands extra backlight lamps and larger power supplies.