Boucher Seat Safe, But GOP May Challenge Next Year
Four recent retirements by House Democrats and one party switch to the GOP is prompting some political analysts to predict Democrats’ power will wane in the Congress. Safe for now is Communications Subcommittee Chairman Rick Boucher, D-Va., a longtime technology advocate. But some analysts are betting Republicans may put up a candidate next year to run against him. Boucher ran unopposed in 2008. His district tends to be conservative, and his votes and views on the politically charged health care reform bill will be closely watched.
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“Boucher is probably safe for as long as he wants his seat, but there is a very real chance that it could flip to the Republicans whenever he retires,” said a Roll Call analysis. Republicans targeted him “heavily” in 2004, the report said. A Dec. 22 Washington Post political analysis named Boucher one of four Virginia Democrats that Republicans will challenge in the 2010 congressional election, based on the state’s growing GOP leanings. The state elected a Republican governor last month in a race perceived by some as a backlash against President Barack Obama, who lost the presidential election in Boucher’s district.
Roll Call rates Boucher’s seat “safe.” The Cook Political Report calls the seat “likely,” meaning it’s a race with potential to become “engaged.” Boucher and other Virginia Democrats outside liberal Northern Virginia “must walk a fine line by keeping the more conservative and liberal Democrats in their districts happy,” said a Real Clear Politics report. “Quite simply, not enough House Democratic members in tough districts have retired to cost the party its majority, but if a trend were to develop, it would start pretty much as this has so far,” said the Dec. 15 report by Charlie Cook. It was referring to the party change and retirement announcements.
Cook’s analysis show Democrats with 218 “solid” and “likely” seats, “coincidentally the barest possible majority.” That compares with 233 seats strongly favored for Democrats in a June Cook poll. Cook’s Dec. 23 poll estimated there are 38 Democratic seats in the “toss up” or “lean” category, compared with 11 for Republicans. Cook defines “toss up” as a race where either party has a chance of winning, versus “lean,” in which one party has an advantage. In a June 2 survey, Cook counted 25 seats currently held by Democrats in the toss up or lean category, compared with 7 for Republicans.
Looking at the chessboard now, Cook said, Democrats could hang on to their majority “by an eyelash” if they win seats considered safe but lose in all competitive races. In past elections, neither party has “ever lost or won all of the competitive races,” Cook said. But the “shrinkage” of safe Democratic seats means any more retirements in competitive districts could pose a problem for Democrats. The number of “endangered” GOP seats is shrinking at the same time that the number of Democratic seats “in jeopardy” has been expanding, he said.