Digital Converter Box Demand May Persist Through 2009
Consumer demand for DTV converter boxes is likely to continue at least through this year as consumers redeem government coupons and make their own transition well after June 12, FCC and NTIA officials said. Speaking at the CEA’s Washington conference Thursday, they voiced hope that the industry will continue to have boxes available.
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Panelist Jason Oxman, CEA senior vice president, said only several million households haven’t prepared at all for DTV and it’s a balancing act for the industry to meet demand for a product with a limited sales life. Consumer skepticism about the transition going as planned is one reason the CEA didn’t want Congress to delay the analog cutoff, he said. “What we've got from that move from Feb. 17 to June 12 is a little bit of consumer anger” along with more readiness.
With an estimated 3.6 million households completely unprepared for DTV, “moving the dial is going to be very, very difficult,” said Mary Lou Kenny, partnership manager for the NTIA’s converter box coupon program. “We're talking about very small numbers of people.” In focus groups, the agency has found people are “angry” about the inconvenience of the transition and are waiting to see if it really happens June 12, she said. “The biggest thing I'm surprised at is the number of people who don’t think the date will hold,” Kenny said. “We didn’t really find a motivator” to convince the recalcitrant to buy and install boxes and other gear.
The FCC will soon ink contracts with groups to install converter boxes in people’s homes, said Bill Lake, the commission’s DTV transition coordinator. An arrangement with Americorps in Denver and California has been “extremely successful,” he said. “No one has ever kissed the FCC in history” but those who get in-home help are grateful, said Lake. Some people are “intimidated” by the boxes and reacted to the transition “along the lines of ‘if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it,'” said Lake. “Once you get them over the hump” of installing the box “they are really happy with the results,” he said.
Some who have sat on the sidelines will buy converter boxes at the last-minute, and because the NTIA will continue to issue the $40 vouchers after the transition, some may wait until later in the year to redeem them, said Kenny. “The demand for converter boxes will continue at least for a few months” after June 12 and the CE industry should prepare accordingly, she said. “We hope and expect that inventory will continue to be available.” Lake sees “some continuing demand for many months” for the devices, he said. “We certainly hope they will continue to be available.”