FCC DTV Signal Report May Over- or Undercount At-Risk Viewers

“It is also important to note that in all of these circumstances the community of license is covered and it is predominately viewers who live outside the actual community of license (in some cases in neighboring communities) who may lose coverage,” the regulator said. Eleven percent, or 196, of all stations will have “some existing population coverage loss” because of changing contours, it estimated. Another 123 outlets, 7 percent, will be affected by technical changes in their digital signal, the FCC added. Distributed transmission systems or a new DTV “'replacement'” translator service proposed in a rulemaking also released late Tuesday may help, it said.

The Longley-Rice models used in the reports make certain assumptions based on computer modeling that may not all be borne out in real life, said the broadcast lawyers and engineer. “They're using for the digital comparison a best- case scenario, for while it has authorized a lot of those stations [they] may not build out those facilities,” said industry attorney Frank Jazzo. He said a client told him that an FCC report assumed it would build out on a construction permit which has a three-year deadline, but it may never be built out. “There’s going to be a learning experience for viewers” and stations, Jazzo added. “The stations are going to have to decide whether that coverage is worth the money, the investment to fill in those holes. And it’s possible with mobile TV coming down the pike that may make it necessary and viable.”

Tuesday’s reports are the “first comprehensive side-by- side comparison” of residents reached by analog versus digital signals, an FCC spokesman said. “That is going to be a valuable resource in our efforts to make the transition as smooth as it can possibly be,” he said. He declined to discuss how the studies were done. They found a “slight downside of otherwise a huge upside picture” for broadcasters, whose loss of some analog viewers will be more than offset by gaining capacity to stream multiple digital channels, said Benton Foundation Chairman Charles Benton. He’s on a panel advising the FCC on the digital transition and other matters. “Where they're missing audience on the fringe, hopefully other competitors or other low-power alternatives might reach those audiences and thereby diversify content even further,” Benton said.

Gray TV sees the future of the industry in mobile broadcasting and will make technical arrangements to boost its signals where needed, said James Ocon, vice president of engineering. “We want to do everything we can to ready ourselves for the mobile TV transition.” But the Longley- Rice models used by the FCC, while based on sound methodology, may overcount or undercount affected viewers, he said. “It is not an exact science for what is the best way to measure these.” A broadcast lawyer agreed, citing a conversation with a broadcast client who said the commission report overstates the number of people who will be able to get the station’s digital signal. An NAB spokeswoman declined to comment because the group’s lawyers and engineers still were looking at the data.

Jazzo said the statistics indicate the DTV switch should be relatively smooth since most stations will add coverage. And close to 90 percent of all viewers won’t be affected by the move to digital because they get cable or satellite-TV, agreed Jazzo and broadcast lawyer Peter Tannenwald. “Most stations have found that digital coverage is remarkably better than they anticipated,” so coverage areas may shrink less than the FCC anticipates, said Tannenwald. “The commission is doing the best it can to cure a problem, and we don’t know if the problem is as big as it seems to be on a nationwide basis.”