IPCC Reports That Action Must be Taken in Next 20 to 30 Years For Long Term Mitigation of Climate Change
On May 4, 2007, Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report that describes scientific progress in understanding global greenhouse gas emission trends, as well as the ability of short-to-medium-term strategies to achieve long-term goals of mitigating climate change.
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If No Action, Green House Gas Emissions Projected to Grow 25-90% in 2000-2030
Under current policies and practices, with fossil fuels maintaining their dominant position in the global energy mix, global GHG emissions are predicted to increase 25-90% between 2000 and 2030.
Hence, CO2 emissions from energy use are predicted to increase 45-110% between 2000 and 2030, with two-thirds to three-quarters of that increase projected to come from the less wealthy nations.
(Since 1970, the IPCC reports that GHGs have increased 70%, with wealthier nations accounting for 46% of those emissions. The largest growth in GHG emissions during this period were from the energy supply sector (a 145% increase), transport (a 120% increase), industry (a 65% increase), and land use and forestry (a 40% increase).
Long-Term Solutions Depend on Actions Taken in Next 20 to 30 Years
The IPCC report found the following regarding long-term mitigation efforts (partial list):
The lower the stabilization level desired for GHGs, the quicker the decline would need to occur. IPCC states that stabilization of climate change would therefore largely depend on mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades.
The range of stabilization levels assessed in the report can be achieved using current technologies and those expected to be commercialized in the coming decades.
Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon would create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies, and processes.
Certain policies have already been shown to be effective in several countries including, among others, taxes or carbon charges on fossil fuels, renewable energy obligations, mandatory fuel economy, biofuel blending, taxes related to motor vehicles, investment in public transport, appliance standards and labeling, building codes, industry benchmarks and performance standards, tradable permits, increasing forest area, and improving waste management.
Examples of What Can be Done in Short/Medium Term Using Existing Technology
The IPCC report noted several areas of focus over the short-to-medium term utilizing existing technology (partial list):
Energy supply and distribution efficiency, switching from coal to gas, nuclear power, and renewable heat and power;
Vehicle efficiency measures, biofuels, and modal shifts from road to rail and to public transport systems;
More efficient building lighting, appliances, and switch to passive and active solar for heating and cooling, and alternative refrigeration fluids;
More efficient end-use electrical equipment for industry, industrial heat and power recovery, control of non-CO2gas emissions, and a wide array of process-specific technology;
Improve crop and grazing land management, improve nitrogen fertilizer application techniques, and dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuels;
Reforestation, forest management, harvested wood product management, and use of forestry products in bioenergy;
Landfill methane recovery, waste incineration with energy recovery, recycling, and waste minimization; etc.
(See ITT's Online Archives or 02/07/07 and 04/20/07 news, 07020700 and 07042010, for BP summaries of the findings of Working Groups I and II, respectively.)
IPCC Summary for Policymakers (dated May 4, 2007, 36 pages), available at http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM040507.pdf