Worldwide PC shipments are on pace to reach 233.7 million this ye...

Dataquest. “Unit growth will continue to be price driven for the next several quarters as PC replacement activity wanes and the battle between Intel and AMD escalates,” said George Shiffler, research dir.-client platforms: “Steeper PC price declines will spur unit growth in mature markets like the United States over the near term, but growth will eventually slow to mid-single digits in these markets as PC replacements fade and saturation becomes more problematic… Vista’s eventual release next year could stimulate some added growth, but we remain skeptical of Vista’s impact.” The report said steeper price declines also will also drive faster growth in emerging markets. That growth should be more sustainable because of low penetration in those markets, expanding economies and a growing number of PC ownership initiatives, Gartner said. The emerging markets are expected to post double-digit growth the next 2 years, it said. Meanwhile, PCs will have a difficult time competing for consumer sales this holiday season. Excess capacity has lowered prices on LCD TVs, and those on many other CE “life-style” products are falling as well, putting them in direct price competition with PCs, Gartner said. “The battle between PCs and LCD TVs in particular is likely to be especially intense over the holiday season given that LCD TVs will almost certainly be backed by aggressive holiday marketing and even lower prices,” Shiffler said. “Even the latest multifunction mobile phones could pose a threat with some buyers considering the prices of these phones and accompanying service contract is increasingly on par with low-end PCs,” he said. Also, the absence of Microsoft’s new Vista OS this fall “will definitely make it harder for PC vendors to maintain consumer interest in PCs without cutting prices,” Shiffler said.